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Let’s face it, the majority of folks betting the NFL will not be wagering on the underdog….and the bookies know this.
Here are some things to keep in mind heading into the 2016 NFL regular season or any season for that matter: Of the ten largest spreads in NFL history, only one (the 1976 Pittsburgh Steelers) have managed to cover the spread.
Quartz conducted an analysis from the period 2000 to 2012 via the Gold Sheet.
Overall, favored teams exceeded the betting line only about 47% of the time. And as the spreads got more out of hand, so did bookies’ abilities to properly size them.
Of the ten largest spreads in 2012, only one of the heavily favored teams covered. This trend held true in 2011.
“Large” lines are those 10.5 or greater. Each increase gives the dog a stronger edge based on historic data.
So what’s on tap for 2016?
Week 2 features an early line of San Francisco +12.5 playing in Carolina.
The poor 49ers are getting no love from the oddsmakers as they will head to Seattle as a +14 underdog in Week 3.
In Week 5, the Browns were an early +10.5 underdog in New England but this line could get more bloated as we approach this game.
Tampa Bay is a +10 underdog in Carolina in Week 5 and this line too could get longer.
The same could hold true for Atlanta, who are a +10.5 underdog in Seattle early on.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
