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The Penn State vs. USC line has moved from Nittany Lions -5.5 to -3.5 in recent days.
Sagarin suggests quite the overlay here as they give us a number of Penn State 1.26. Overlays in the 3/3.5/4 range have performed especially well for the dog using our model developed over the past two years.
Minnesota upset Southern California last week 24-17.
USC started sluggishly on offense for the third straight week. They trailed Michigan 14-3 at halftime of a 27-24 loss and fell behind Wisconsin 21-10 at the break before rallying to win 38-21.
No. 4 ranked Penn State lost second-year right tackle and first-year starter Anthony Donkoh in the first half of last weekend’s win over UCLA due to injury with the team's best offensive linesman listed as "questionable" for this game.
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Vaughn Dalzell of NBC Sports offered the following prediction for Saturday’s matchup between Penn State and USC:
“USC is one of the most traveled teams in the country with a neutral field game versus LSU, then a bye week and home game versus Utah State followed by a tough stretch of going to Michigan (27-24 loss), coming back to L.A. to host Wisconsin (38-21 comeback win), and a road trip to Minnesota (24-17 loss).
Now, USC is back at home to host Penn State who has not been on the road since Week 1 when they made a short trip to West Virginia (34-12). USC was sluggish in the last two first halves, but Penn State wasn’t much better hosting UCLA last week.
The Trojans’ opportunity will come from a quick start for a Penn State team that hasn’t played in another time zone yet. I would target USC in the first quarter at +0.5 points or the +1.5 hosting Penn State.”
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