X and Truth Social Merger Announced Before August Betting Market Unveiled

Will President-Elect Donald Trump's Truth Social Merge With Elon Musk's X?

That's the question being asked this week amid swirling rumors. 

X has approximately 611 million active monthly users and is valued at around $9.4 billion while Truth Social's parent company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), has surged past X Holdings, valued at $10 billion.

During an interview appearance on CNN on Wednesday, Kara Swisher, a business and internet journalist and someone who has widely covered Elon Musk and Twitter (now X), said, "I would suspect he would try to merge Truth Social" with X.

This prompted Polygon to open a betting market.

Gamblers aren't so sure.  As of Wednesday morning, with wagering available for nearly 24 hours, only 19 percent of those placing bets believed such a merger would happen.

Trump created Truth Social in early 2022 after he was banned from other social media platforms, notably Twitter.  That was before Musk purchased Twitter.  Musk would later go on to endorse Trump in the 2024 US presidential election.

On Tuesday, Trump announced that Musk and former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy will lead a new “Department of Government Efficiency” — which is not, despite the name, a government agency.

The acronym “DOGE” is a nod to Musk’s favorite cryptocurrency, dogecoin. Trump said in a statement that Musk and Ramaswamy will work from outside the government to offer the White House “advice and guidance” and will partner with the Office of Management and Budget to “drive large scale structural reform, and create an entrepreneurial approach to Government never seen before.” He added that the move would shock government systems.

It’s not clear how the organization will operate.

How This Betting Market Will Resolve

This market will resolve to "Yes" if if is officially announced that that X (formerly Twitter) and Truth Social, or if X or its parent company Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) have agreed to merge, by July 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The announcement must indicate that the two organizations have agreed to combine their operations. This could be a legal merger where they form one entity, a joint venture, or an acquisition of one by the other.

An official announcement before the end date of an X/Truth Social merger will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if or when the merger actually occurs, however statements merely suggesting that a merger/acquisition may occur or which express intent will not qualify.

The resolution source will be official statements from X and/or Truth Social/Trump Media & Technology Group, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.