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St. Louis is playing decent baseball of late. They've won six of their last ten games and went 2-1 in their last two series (against the Pirates and Cubs). Miami continues to be one of the worst teams in the league at the moment.
The Cardinals have won six of the last seven games against the Marlins. Because they are playing in Miami, the price should be under -180 in each of the scheduled games. The Marlins have won only two of their last ten games overall.
On Monday we had a price of -156 with the St. Louis ace Sonny Gray starting. We would not expect a price above what we are going to see on Monday.
Gray has faced these Marlins a total of 51 times, allowing just 4 RBI's and zero home runs.
Gray pitched seven innings of one-run ball and struck out nine Wednesday against the Pirates.
Braxton Garrett struggled in a losing effort against the Mets on Wednesday night, giving up six runs (four earned) on seven hits over his 4 2/3 frames. He was absolutely pummeled in his prior start following a win before that.
This series has tended to go Over. Miami has given up at least 4 runs in six of their prior ten games though the Cards have only scored 3 or fewer runs in half of their last ten.
Garrett is capable of pitching a full game (he did so on May 24) and we believe he should rebound here. Gray is likely to pitch well for the Cardinals. Monday's game we would avoid a bet on the Over.
Instead, St. Louis looks like the more attractive play.
Jazz Chisholm leads the Marlins with a .260 batting average, and has 11 doubles, three triples, 10 home runs, 23 walks and 34 RBI. Tim Anderson is 11-for-39 with an RBI over the past 10 games.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is 4-for-6 with three RBI's against Lance Lynn on Tuesday. Lynn has allowed six home runs against Marlins batters in 80 at bats.
Lynn has not had a win in his last four starts. He was charged with three runs in 4 1/3 innings Thursday versus the Pirates. Because he hasn't been able to pitch deep, St. Louis will likely have to rely on their bullpen for much of this game. An Over Tuesday is more likely.
Nolan Arenado has 13 doubles, six home runs and 32 RBI while hitting .262 for the Cardinals. Ivan Herrera is 11-for-33 with three doubles over the last 10 games.
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