Written by :
Published on :
An AFC North matchup in Sunday Night Football, as Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals face Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Dreew Butler, Anthony Becht and Jonathan Casillas discuss this top Qb clash and they share who they think will win on this spot. The line on this game as of Sunday morning was Ravens -3.5.
Becht notes that "both of these teams have been dangerous" but "a tough game for the Ravens."
He notes that he can't see Baltimore losing two home games in a row. The Ravens have already lost to Miami and Buffalo at home already this season, going 0-2.
Casillas doesn't see it.
"I don't like the way the Ravens finished," he said. "They are not a good finishing team. They've given up two double digit fourth quarter leads. And also 28 points in the 4th quarter by Miami and Tua (Tagovailoa)."
The line has trended from -3 to 3.5 during the course of the week and has not dipped below the 3. We get a number of Baltimore 1.93, indicating a 1 to 1.5 overlay.
Comparable games include:
LA Chargers +3.5 to +4.5 vs. Kansas City with the road dog Chargers covering as KC wins by 3 and just fails to make the number. Here we had a similar overlay of 1.5 though and the road team an underdog. The line trend was a half point to full point above our current line movement.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 to +4.5 (+5.5) vs. Cleveland featured a more fluid line with the home favorite Cleveland covering and winning by 6. Another half point cover. This line was an overlay of 1.5 to 2.5.
Miami -3.5 to -4 vs. Cincinnati resulted in the home favorite Cincinnati covering the spread and winning by 11 points. This one had an overlay of 2 to 2.5, the road team was favored and Tua got injured.
Cincinnati has won the last two games in this series and we see them able to cover the 3-point spread here.
The Ravens were seeing better than 60% of the action.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
