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The Oregon Ducks are a +6.5 underdog versus the Oklahoma Sooners in Wednesday's Alamo Bowl. Even better, if they beat Oklahoma, the Ducks pay out $20 for every $10 bet on the moneyline or $200 for every $100 bet.
Can Oregon Really Win Outright Against Oklahoma in This Year's Alamo Bowl?
There are trends available that suggests the Ducks can beat Oklahoma or, at the very least, cover the spread.
- A sick 92% of the betting action was on the Sooners spread early Wednesday, yet some sites like BetMGM have held the line at -6.5 while others have moved to -7. Among the offshore books, BetOnline has also opted to hold at -6.5. What this indicates is a possible opinion by the oddsmakers that Oregon covers here.
- Gambling911.com has a line of Oklahoma -5, meaning there is a 1.5 to 2 point overlay on this game.
- As an away favorite, Oklahoma is just 5-9-1 Against The Spread since 2018.
- Ducks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Ducks are 9-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Why Oregon Might Not Win or Cover Here
- As far as winning outright, recent trends are not in the Ducks favor as Oklahoma has gone 43-5 Straight Up as a favorite since 2018 and 74-9 Straight Up as a favorite since 2015. In other words, the Sooners have won nearly 90% of all games as a favorite over the last six seasons. Because of this, we will pay the -200 price to bet on the Sooners winning on the moneyline even though the Ducks have a good chance of covering the spread here in our opinion.
- The dagger may be Oregon's poor record Against The Spread against in non-conference games: 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.
- Ducks are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Profitable Teams for the Bookies
No matter who manages to cover the spread here, the books win out with both teams this season. That's because, while both have solid Straight Up records, neither will end up with winning records Against The Spread. Oregon would be a mere 6-8 ATS with a cover while Oklahoma ends up at the .500 mark ATS.
There is some strategy here on the part of the books: An Oregon cover allows for an even greater profit on the Sooners!
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
