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Betting Alerts: Southern Alabama vs. UCLA 7 Point Overlay, Cal vs. Notre Dame Rollercoaster

Written by:
Ean Lamb
Published on:
Sep/16/2022

The line on South Alabama vs. UCLA has moved from Bruins 13.5 to -15.5 among some of the sharper offshore books and -14 to -16 at sites like Bovada and similar recreational shops.

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UCLA had a power rating of 73.12. South Alabama had a rating of 68.88.  The home field advantage for the Bruins results in a number of 6.66.  This gives us an overlay of nearly 7 points.

Both teams come into this one with 2-0 records.  The underfunded Sun Belt conference managed to beat three Power Five conference opponents in the past week.  We're talking Georgia Southern knocking off Nebraska, and that team's head coach in the process, App State beating Texas A&M and Marshall stunning Notre Dame.

The Jaguars have so far beaten Nicholls State and Central Michigan, holding both to under 200 yards of offense.  UCLA will provide their biggest test thus far.  South Alabama is just 1-10 Straight Up against Power Five teams.

The UCLA defense leads the Pac-12 in points allowed per game, giving up just 12 points in each game.  They are allowing 236 yards per game.

The Bruins were seeing better than 55% of the spread action.

California vs. Notre Dame

The 0-2 Fighting Irish are an -11.5 favorite against a 2-0 California Golden Bears team. 

Notre Dame still has a high power rating on Sagarin of 82.62.  California was coming in at 72.24.  Factoring in the home field for the Irish, we get 12.8. 

This one opened at -12.5 favoring Notre Dame, dipped down to -9 earlier in the week, then was closing back around -12.5. That 12.5 is on the money so we have a line that opens and closes on the money but with an underlay at one point as much as 4 points.

The dog covered in four of five games in last week's College Football and NFL combined where the line was accurate based on the Sagarin formula.  Underlays were especially good for the dogs as well.

- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com

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