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Top Consensus Plays July 6 - Dodgers Again

Written by:
Dan Shapiro
Published on:
Jul/06/2019

The Dodgers and Braves were seeing the most consensus play action at 76% apiece followed by the Astros and Red Sox, each at 71%.  Once again the Yankees-Rays game was enjoying nice volume on both sides.


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The Dodgers were sitting right on our threshold of where we stop making picks at -159 some books.

Some books have dropped the line 10 cents off the -172 so we would use some degree of caution betting the Dodgers this day, although Maeda should pitch well.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Padres RH Chris Paddack (5-4, 3.05 ERA) vs. Dodgers RH Kenta Maeda (7-4, 3.78)

Paddack defeated St. Louis in his last turn as he registered eight strikeouts while allowing one run and two hits in six innings. The 23-year-old went 0-2 over his previous four starts, permitting 14 earned runs in 19 1/3 frames while serving up seven homers. Paddack lost to the Dodgers on May 14, when he surrendered six runs (three earned) and five hits - including two-run homers by Cody Bellinger and Joc Pederson - over 4 2/3 innings.

Maeda has gone 0-2 in his last five starts despite allowing more than two runs in just one of those outings. The 31-year-old worked only 4 1/3 frames in a no-decision against Colorado last time out, giving up two runs and three hits. Maeda is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in two starts against San Diego this season and 6-3 with a 4.13 ERA in 15 career appearances (13 starts) versus the club.

Atlanta is pricey at -210. Houston is much more so at -235.

Detroit is not a very good team this season but somewhat attractive due to the line movement on Boston -210 to -175.  The Tigers line has shortened as a result, +188 to +157.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox RH Rick Porcello (5-7, 5.07 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Jordan Zimmermann (0-5, 5.36)

Porcello will look to erase the memory of a forgettable trip to London after he was battered for six runs and five hits in only one-third of an inning in a no-decision versus the New York Yankees last weekend. He also had a rocky outing in his previous turn versus Toronto, giving up five runs on eight hits over six innings. Porcello is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in four starts against the Tigers since leaving them for Boston, but he has been unable to solve Gordon Beckham (15-for-34).

Although Zimmermann is in search of his first victory of the season, he is coming off an encouraging effort against Washington, settling for a no-decision despite yielding one run on four hits over six innings. It marked only the third quality start of the season for Zimmermann, who lasted only three innings in a losing effort at Boston on April 25 and was knocked around for five runs on five hits. He has struggled against Mookie Betts, who is 4-for-6 with a homer off him.

While the last three meetings have resulted in double digit runs scored, six of the last ten have stayed UNDER the current total of 11.

Eight of the last ten games Boston has played in the Red Sox scored six or more runs while allowing five or more in nine of their last ten games. 

Detroit has scored five or more in five of their last six games.

We will stay away from the UNDER here.

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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