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Penn State vs. Arkansas Outback Bowl Hot Betting Trends

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Jan/01/2022

Gambling911.com has Penn State as a -5 favorite versus Arkanas in Saturday's New Year's Day Outback Bowl Game.  The oddsmakers have different ideas as they have made the Razorbacks a -3 point favorite.   That's because the Nittany Lions opt-outs have resulted in an 8-point line swing in the opposite direction.  Six players, five of whom are defensive linesman, have elected not to play against the Hogs on Saturday.

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Arkansas (8-4) closed out the regular season by winning four of its final five games, losing only by a touchdown to then-No. 2 Alabama during that stretch.

"Some teams take (bowl games) lightly," Razorbacks wide receiver De'Vion Warren said. "We don't take any game lightly, so for us it's another game that we have to go out there and earn respect. In college football, people do not respect Arkansas."

This is the Nittany Lions' fifth trip to the Outback Bowl -- against five different SEC programs -- with their most recent appearance being a 37-24 loss to Florida on Jan. 1, 2011.  Meanwhile, Arkansas hasn't played in a New Year's Day bowl game since 2008.

Hot Betting Trends

  • Nittany Lions are 6-19-2 Against The Spread in their last 27 games following a straight up loss.
  • Penn State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. SEC.
  • The Razorbacks are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 games following a straight up win.
  • The Nittany Lions are 14-1 in Non-Conference Games Straight Up dating back to 2017.
  • Penn State though is 2-8-0 SU as an underdog over that same period.
  • Arkansas as a favorite since 2017 has gone 13-6 Straight Up since 2017.
  • Arkansas is just 3-21-0 Straight Up against ranked opponents.

Under Normal Situations Penn State Would Be The Pick Here But..

These are not normal situations.

Star WR Jahan Dotson has opted out – he’s a first round caliber prospect – to go along with DE Arnold Ebiketie, all-star S Jaquan Brisker and losing the 1-2 tackling linebacking tandem Brandon Smith and Ellis Brooks hurts. Throw in the departure of defensive coordinator Brent Pry for the Virginia Tech head coaching gig, and there’s a whole lot missing.

Arkansas has fared much better on the opt-out front coming into this game.  They still have some missing pieces however.  Top WR Treylon Burks is out and so too is defensive end Tre Williams.

The brunt of the spread betting action is on Arkansas here at 75% and the line has trended towards -3.5.

In the end, Penn State should still be slightly more talented to cover here at +3.5.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com  

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