PGA Tour Picks – U.S. Open Odds 2021

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

Phil Mickelson turned back the clock last month capturing the PGA Championship for his sixth major title. The only thing standing between Lefty and the career Grand Slam is the U.S. Open and he gets another chance starting Thursday. Mickelson has been close during his career with a record six runner-up showings and he has to feel good about his chances. Oddsmakers aren’t so kind, though, placing Mickelson well down the list.  Bookmaker.eu offers a generous welcome bonus (max bonus $1600).

Jon Rahm is the betting favorite for good reason. The Spaniard has played well lately and he has a history of success at Torrey Pines Golf Club. He likely would have entered off a win at the Memorial had he not been forced to withdraw due to a positive COVID test. Rahm had a six-shot bulge over the field after three rounds. That, and a first major title, should only serve as inspiration. But the field is stacked with the game’s best and as we’ve seen throughout this season, anything can happen. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of updated odds and matchups when you’re ready to place a wager.

2021 U.S. Open
Dates: Thursday, June 17 - Sunday, June 20, 2021
Location: Torrey Pines Golf Club, La Jolla, CA
Opening PGA Tour Odds: Jon Rahm +925
U.S. Open TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC

Odds Analysis

With the best players on the planet assembled for one tournament it isn’t surprising to see the current odds list shake out the way it has. Rahm is the only player with shorter than 10/1 odds but six players are better than 20/1 on the chart. We do have to wonder about Rahm after being withdrawn from the Memorial after testing positive for COVID. He was sequestered for days and just recently cleared to participate. That could easily affect his game.

There are several players in the next tier that offer plenty of value. Jordan Spieth has been in a groove for months with six top-10s in his last 12 starts, including a victory at the Texas Open in April. He hasn’t had much success at Torrey Pines, which could be a sticking point, but he’s probably better prepared to handle the joint than he’s been in the past.

Recent major champions Hideki Matsuyama and Collin Morikawa also fall into the second tier of favorites. Matsuyama has only one top-10 in the last seven months, but he made it count with his historic win at The Masters. He’s also done well at Torrey Pines during his career with a podium finish in 2019 among his three top-20s. It’s been a bit of a roller coaster ride for Morikawa since his PGA Championship victory last year. When he’s good he’s really good, though, and he prepped for this event with a runner-up at the Memorial, his third top-10 in his last five starts.

Most in the field are familiar with the Torrey Pines layout since it hosts the Farmers Insurance Open. Patrick Reed won the FIO back in January and he is a major threat, literally. Reed always seems to be lurking near the top of the leaderboard in majors with six top-20s in his last nine starts. The South Course at Torrey Pines recently underwent renovations extending the track to over 7,800 yards from the black tees, making it the longest on Tour. It will play shorter this week, however, but still close to 7,700 yards allows for free swingers to let it rip.

Odds to Win 2021 U.S. Open
Jon Rahm +925
Xander Schauffele +1150
Brooks Koepka +1515
Dustin Johnson +1650
Tony Finau +1685
Bryson Dechambeau +1852
Rory McIlroy +1952
Collin Morikawa +2155
Justin Thomas +2267
Jordan Spieth +2368
Patrick Cantlay +2463
Patrick Reed +2498
Viktor Hovland +2876
Hideki Matsuyama +3915
Scottie Scheffler +4050
Tyrrell Hatton +4050

Storylines abound this week, but plenty of attention will be directed at Mickelson. His epic collapse at the 2006 U.S. Open will linger forever unless Lefty can add the trophy to his mantle and complete the career Grand Slam. He double-bogeyed the 72nd hole to lose by one shot, ouch. Mickelson showed he’s not ready to compete full time on the Champions Tour with his surprising win at Kiawah Island. Mickelson saw his pre-tournament odds drop drastically this week. He was listed at +22500 for the PGA Championship and opened at +7250 for the U.S. Open.

We’ve seen plenty of unlikely winners on both the PGA Tour and European Tour this season. The key of course is finding the value. With so many great players at the top of the field it’s hard to imagine someone sneaking up to claim a victory. While Lefty’s win last month was a surprise it wasn’t unexpected.

Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau are among the best that have yet to win a major. They’ve both been close over their careers and it seems like only a matter of time. Maybe this is the time.

U.S. Open Pick: Patrick Reed
Top-10 Lock: Xander Schauffele
Top-20 Lock: Will Zalatoris

Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.

- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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