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NHL Hockey Betting: NHL Futures Bets to Make Right Now

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
Nov/26/2019

Over the past few days we’ve taken an in-depth look at futures wagering theory and practice focusing on the NFL.  Even if you’re not a football fan you might want to check out these articles as the concepts we discussed apply to any type of futures betting market.  Today, we’re going to turn our attention to the National Hockey League and look for some futures bets that you should make right now.  BetOnline.ag Sportsbook is our source for the NHL futures odds we’re using herein.

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The plays below aren’t so much our ‘prediction’ as who will win the Stanley Cup as they are an assessment of the value of the teams relative to the BetOnline.ag NHL futures odds.  Finding value is the secret to successful sports betting.  If you always follow the value the wins and losses will take care of themselves and you’ll make money over the long haul.

NHL STANLEY CUP PLAYOFF FUTURES BETS TO MAKE RIGHT NOW

BET NEW YORK ISLANDERS +700 TO WIN EASTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
BET NEW YORK ISLANDERS +1400 TO WIN STANLEY CUP

The New York Islanders lost 3-0 to the Anaheim Ducks last time out.  This is significant since it represented the first time the Isles have failed to pick up a point since a 5-2 loss at Carolina...on October 11!  A 17 game point streak is very impressive yet for some reason the public has yet to catch on to just how good this Islanders team really is.  This incarnation of the Islanders are winning with defense and goaltending.  They’ve been at or near the top of the team defense ranking since early this season and as of this writing weigh in at #4 allowing just 2.45 goals per game.  At +700 to win the Eastern Conference, the implied probability is 12.5%.  My numbers have them at 17% and checking some of the websites that calculate playoff and championship probability there’s quite a few that have the Islanders between 15% and 20% to win the Eastern Conference.  At +1400, the implied probability is 6.7% and my numbers give them an 11% chance to hoist the Stanley Cup.  The Islanders have two capable goaltenders in Thomas Greiss and Semyon Varlamov which means that they’ll be able to weather any type of short term injury issues.  As some of the more ‘public’ teams crash and burn the prices on the Islanders will only get shorter.

BET EDMONTON OILERS +1200 TO WIN WESTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
BET EDMONTON OILERS +2500 TO WIN STANLEY CUP

Has the ‘public’ not bothered to pay attention to the NHL this year?  Based on these prices it sure looks like it.  As of this writing, the Oilers have the most points in the Western Conference yet 7 teams are priced at shorter odds.  The current vintage Oilers have done everything right that the Oilers in the past few years did wrong.  For example, they’re winning on the road (9-5-1).  They’re getting good defense and goaltending ranking #7 in team defense giving up just 2.77 goals per game.  The fact that Connor McDavid aka the best hockey player on the planet wears on Oilers sweater doesn’t hurt either.  At +2500 to win the Stanley Cup it represents an implied probability of 3.8%.  The +1200 too win the conference translates to a 7.7% implied probability.  My numbers have their ‘true probability’ of winning the Western Conference at 14% and winning the Stanley Cup at 8%.  Both positions are a nice overlay and both prices will only come down a the Oilers maintain their winning ways.

BET MONTREAL CANADIENS +2500 TO WIN EASTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
BET MONTREAL CANADIENS +5000 TO WIN STANLEY CUP

The Habs are mired in a four game losing streak but they’ve otherwise played well this year.  Of course the name of the game is valuation and both of the aforementioned prices represent a decent overlay.  Obviously, a Montreal cup win is a long shot but these prices are absurd.  The Habs are a much more capable team than the Ottawa Senators yet both teams are priced at +2500 to win the conference and +5000 to win the cup.  At +2500, implied probability is 3.8% and my numbers have the Habs at 7% to win the Eastern Conference.  I’ve got them at 3.2% to win the Stanley Cup but at +5000 the implied probability is a mere 2%.  Both positions are low risk/high reward opportunities that also represent a statistical overlay.

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