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NFL Win Totals Betting Pick: Kansas City Chiefs - 2020

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
May/26/2020

The Kansas City Chiefs enter the new season as the defending Super Bowl champions, which means that 31 other teams will be putting a target onto their backs. Fortunately, Kansas City is bringing back much of their team from last season, and boast the game's most exciting player in QB Patrick Mahomes.

After a 12-4 campaign, Vegas odds-makers have the Chiefs over/under win total set at 11.5, tied for the highest in the league. Let's take a look at how the offseason has fared for Kansas City, as well as what's ahead on their schedule, in order to see whether the over or under is the best play.

Offseason Summary

When you win a Super Bowl, you likely don't feel the need to go crazy in free agency. That's exactly what the Chiefs did, prioritizing keeping their own over bringing in new faces. Kansas City played the franchise tag on DT Chris Jones, picked up the option on RB Damien Williams' contract, and re-signed both WR Demarcus Robinson and CB Bashaud Breeland to one-year deals. They did add a couple of pieces, however, namely defensive end and former first round pick Taco Charlton and tight end Ricky Seals-Jones.

The Chiefs did say goodbye to a couple of players. On defense, K.C. lost DE Emmanuel Ogbah to the Dolphins, as well as LB Reggie Ragland, who signed with the Lions. CB Kendall Fuller also departed town, signing with the Redskins, while on the offensive side the biggest loss was OG Stefen Wisniewski, who left for the Steelers. Several players are still available in free agency, including LB Terrell Suggs, RBs LeSean McCoy and Spencer Ware, and CB Morris Claiborne, but it's unlikely any of them return to Kansas City.

As far as the draft goes, the Chiefs made the most of having just six selections. At the end of the first round, the team took the first running back off the board in LSU's Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Edwards-Helaire will seemingly replace McCoy and Ware in the backfield and help give Kansas City another dimension to their offense. In round two, they addressed the loss of a couple of linebackers from free agency with Mississippi State LB Willie Gay. Other notable picks from draft weekend include TCU OT Lucas Niang and Louisiana Tech CB/S L'Jarius Sneed.

2020 Schedule

Despite being the champs, the 2020 schedule is fairly tolerable for the Chiefs. Kansas City's schedule ranks tied for 18th as far as difficulty goes, as their opponents' combined 2019 win percentage sits at .500. However, it should be noted that the three other AFC West teams (Broncos, Raiders, Chargers) all finished under .500 last season, which means their out-of-division schedule looks to be tougher.

The AFC West is matched up against the AFC East and NFC South this season. That means the Chiefs will face the Patriots and Bills, as well as the Saints and Buccaneers this fall. Being the first place team from last year, they'll also have to play other first place teams in the Ravens and Texans, the latter of whom they host in the NFL's opening game. One fairly significant downside to Kansas City's schedule is that many of their toughest games happen n the road, as over the course of the season they'll take trips to Baltimore, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans.

Verdict

With the vast majority of their starters back for at least one more go-around, the Chiefs will still be a very good team this fall. Keep in mind as well that they found a way to win 12 games with Mahomes missing a pair of games due to an injury, so a fully-healthy Mahomes makes things even better for them.

However, they will need to win 12 or more games for the over to hit. It's a high number as it is, but consider this. The rest of AFC West has improved mightily, and it's doubtful we see all three teams fail to reach .500 again. Many of Kansas City's toughest games are on the road this year as well, as going 7-1 away from Arrowhead Stadium may be hard to replicate. Finally, there is a greater target on them and added pressure from winning last year, which we have seen affect some defending champions in previous seasons. The Chiefs will still be very good and should still be the division winners, but I'm taking the UNDER 11.5 win total for them this season.

Take the under at our favorite pay per head bookie site PayPerHead247.com.

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