NFL Playoff Betting – Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

While the young guns take over the AFC, the NFC Championship features two of the best to ever play in the NFL. Tom Brady suits up for his 14th conference championship game leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers into Lambeau Field for a tussle with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. As the Bucs proved last week, the outcome of regular season games is meaningless so don’t read too much into Tampa’s 38-10 decision over Green Bay in Week 6. The Packers opened as a 4-point favorite to reach their first Super Bowl since the 2010 season, going 0-3 in conference title tilts since then.  Bookmaker.eu offers a generous welcome bonus (max bonus $1600)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers
Date and Time: Sunday, January 24, 2021, 3:05 p.m. ET
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
NFL Odds: Packers -3, O/U 51.5
Buccaneers at Packers TV Coverage: FOX

Odds Analysis

It’s hard to bet against Brady in the playoffs. Early action on the Bucs moved the spread a full point with Tampa currently -3 on the NFL betting line. With Brady heating up the Bucs are a popular pick. They avenged two regular season losses by upsetting New Orleans last week and the Bucs have won seven straight road games going 4-3 ATS. They haven’t had much success in Green Bay, but that misery was before the arrival of Brady. The Packers and Rodgers got what they wanted; now they have to take advantage. Rodgers is playing his fifth NFC Championship but his first at Lambeau Field. And the Packers are hoping for a better outcome than last season when they were manhandled by the Niners. They covered the 7-point line in their 32-18 win over the Rams last week, their sixth straight at home. Overall they are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS on the frozen tundra.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

What happened in the past is just that – it’s in the past. Brady was brought in to change things and so far the results are good. The Bucs can put past failures in Green Bay behind them. They dropped 15 of their last 16 visits with the lone victory coming way back in 2005. Brady certainly did his part after a rough beginning to his Bucs career. He threw for 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns. Twice in the last three regular season games he had at least 390 yards for the second-best pass offense.

The Bucs aren’t all about Brady and the offense, though. They played a strong defensive game last week against the Saints to advance. They allowed just 294 total yards and used three interceptions of Drew Brees and a fumble recovery to score three touchdowns. Brees completed 19 of 34 for 134 yards. That was a good sign for the 21st ranked pass defense, though the Bucs probably won’t get as many breaks on Sunday.

With conditions expected to be frigid, the ground game will play a big role for both clubs. Leonard Fournettte and Ronald Jones each had over 60 yards last week and the Bucs totaled 127 yards. They averaged less than 100 yards during the regular season but were still able to score nearly 31 points per game.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers can’t play as poorly as they did in their Week 6 loss to Tampa. Rodgers had his worst game of the season and possibly his career throwing a pair of picks with one returned for a touchdown. He completed just 45 percent of his throws for 160 yards without a touchdown. Tampa’s defense is good, but not that good. Rodgers got primed for the championship game by taking LA’s top ranked defense apart in last week’s encounter.

No team worked the Rams over like Green Bay did and it was a complete effort. Rodgers threw for 296 yards and a pair of scores and Aaron Jones rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown as the Packers amassed 484 yards, nearly 100 yards more than the Rams had allowed in any game this season. And I doubt Rodgers will be as generous with the football as he was in Week 6. He threw only five picks all season and led the NFL with 48 touchdown strikes. The Packers had the fewest giveaways in the NFL with 11 and didn’t cough it up last week. They are 11-0 this season when not committing a turnover.

With Rodgers playing at an MVP level the defense doesn’t need to be great. Just being good has gotten the job done. They held the Rams to 244 total yards and 2 of 8 on third downs while sacking Jared Goff four times. The unit ranked seventh against the pass during the regular season while giving up 23.1 points per game.

Bet Buccaneers at Packers at BookMaker.eu

The battle of the Bays should be a good one with two of the most decorated quarterbacks looking for another shot at glory. Rodgers wanted home field advantage for a chance to play his first championship game at Lambeau Field and he got it. I don’t think he’s going to blow the opportunity, which is why I’m backing the home team minus the points.

NFL Score Prediction: Green Bay 31, Tampa Bay 24

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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