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NFL Betting – Week 3 Wise Guy Picks

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Sep/19/2019

I said last week that it’s common for the betting public to overreact early in the season. That was directed at teams that didn’t play well and still had time to regroup. After the flurry of early-season injuries to quarterbacks, we can officially start to overreact. The big concern this week is for the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans after they each lost their starter. It might be time to fade those teams, at least for this week until we find out how they respond with a new signal-caller.


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In the meantime we can follow the money to try and turn a profit at offshore sportsbooks. And we can do that by watching what the wise guys are doing on the NFL betting lines. It’s not always easy to see what they’re up to, but paying close attention to the spreads and totals can help you make smarter wagers. When wise guys play the books are watching, and so should you. Following sharp action can be profitable, like it was last week when a few games we were tracking paid off.

Even though the Patriots had struggled in recent years when visiting Miami and they were a huge favorite, sharp action backed the Brady Bunch and it paid off with an easy cover. Wise guys also threw down on the Bills in their matchup with the Giants. Making a second straight trip to the Meadowlands, Buffalo sent Eli Manning to the bench with a nice cover.

Let’s take a look at some games on the NFL Week 3 schedule where the sharps have impacted the line. And remember, BookMaker will have spreads and totals for every NFL matchup during the 2019 season. Visit BookMaker.eu when you’re ready to throw down on your favorite NFL team.

NFL Week 3 Wise Guy Picks

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills ( -6, 44 )

Maybe the betting public knows something about this game. Then again maybe they don’t. Opening as a 4-point road dog, the Bengals were picked up by a good percentage of the early money, which is kind of surprising since they just got the snot beat out of them by the Niners. And the Bills are off to a 2-0 SU and ATS start after sweeping their trip to the Meadowlands. The only thing the Bills didn’t find was Jimmy Hoffa.

Buffalo has kept pace with the Patriots in the AFC East through two weeks and there is a showdown in western New York in Week 4. It looks like we have a classic lookahead situation for the Bills, which is probably why the Bengals are a sexy upset pick. Wise guys say don’t bet on it. They are backing the Bills and that stingy defense with Josh Allen likely to have a big game against a leaky Cincy D. Sharp action pushed the line to Buffalo -6.

Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings ( -9, 43.5 )

Squares typically don’t move the betting line and 70 percent of the early money isn’t going to move the spread off a key number. When we saw the Vikings go from -7 on the opening line to -9 there was someone behind the curtain pulling the levers. The best bet is a wise guy. Both teams are 1-1 SU and ATS, but sharp bettors do their research and know things the average Joe doesn’t.

A for instance is Oakland’s record when travelling to the Eastern Time Zone. The Raiders haven’t enjoyed much success anywhere over the last few years, but they’ve been pretty putrid when making the trip going 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four 1 p.m. ET starts the past two seasons. And over that span they’ve played a total of eight games in the East at various times and have gone 1-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS.

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys ( -23, 47 )

I said it last week and the week before, and I’m saying it again this week: The Miami Dolphins are bad. Brian Flores must be setting up to run for office after he proclaimed the Dolphins aren’t tanking the season. Soon after he blurted those words, the team traded its last player worthy of anything when Minkah Fitzpatrick was sent to Pittsburgh. Flores could be right and the Fins aren’t losing on purpose. But if that’s the case the season is only going to get longer and plenty of good seats will be available at soon-to-be renamed Soft Rock Stadium.

When the opening line hit the board at Cowboys -17 they were hammered with early action. I’m not sure wise guys want anything to do with Dolphins at this point, but watching the line grow to a whopping -23 is almost unheard of. Then again we haven’t seen anything like this Miami team in, well...forever. Both sharps and squares gobbled up the Boys against a team that had no offense and now has no defense with the departure of Fitzpatrick. They’ve been outscored by 92 points in their first two games and it’s not getting better.

Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.

- Article courtesy of Bookmaker and Phil Simon

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