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NFL Betting Line Analysis: Home Team Dog +3.5

Written by:
Tyrone Black
Published on:
Jan/18/2021

Gambling911.com looks at games that featured the home team as a primary +3.5 home dog.  We look at the line moves around this number and the final results.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans (January 10, 2021)

The recreational sportsbook Bovada opened at Titans +3.5 and did shift to +3 at times.  The +3 remained for a few days before closing at +3.5.

Heritage Sports, a sharp book, followed a similar path.

Bookmaker did so as well, however, they closed at +4.5, but only for a few minutes.  It's interesting that the line never hit the 4, instead jumping from +3.5 to +4.5.

This appeared to be a last ditch effort to get more action on the Titans.  The line only shifted back to +3.5 the morning of the game.

Spread Range: +3.5 to +3 to +3.5 (rare +4.5)

Line Closing Trend: Line move from +3 to +3.5

Result: Baltimore wins by 7 points (20-13)

Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos (November 22, 2020)

Recreational book Bovada closed at +4 but had been moving back and forth between +3.5 and +4 midweek.  Earlier in the week, the line opened at +3 and stayed there for about 24 hours. 

BetOnline opened at +3.5 and alternated between that number and +4 all week.  Just prior to kickoff they moved to +3.5 at Noon.

Heritage opened at +2.5 and moved up to +3.5.  The line was alternating between +3.5 and +4, where it closed.

Bookmaker moved from +4 to +3.5.  On Sunday morning, the line shot all the way to +5.5 from 4 pm to 4:20 pm before closing at +3.5.

Spread Range: +2.5 to +3.5 to +4

Line Closing Trend: Line move from +3.5 to +4

Result: Denver wins by 7 points (20-13)

LA Rams vs. Miami Dolphins (November 1, 2020) (Primary +3)

Recreational book Bovada opened +3.5 and moved to +4 briefly before sitting on +3.5 the rest of the week.

BetOnline held at +3.5 with the exception of Wednesday, where the line sat at +4 much of the day.

Heritage also had the line at +3.5 with the exception of +4 for a day.

Bookmaker followed that same trend but closed at +3.

Spread Range: +3 (Closed +3.5 final hour before kickoff a number of books)

Line Closing Trend: +3.5 (+3 rare)

Result: Miami wins (28-17)

Indianapolis Colts vs. Detroit Lions (November 1, 2020)

Recreational book Bovada held at +3 all week until 45 minutes before kickoff, at which point they moved to +3.5

Heritage followed this same trend.

BetOnline had the number at +2.5 before moving to +3 then finally to +3.5 the hour before kickoff.

Bookmaker, after opening and holding at +2.5 for a few days, moved to +3 and closed on that number.

Spread Range: +2.5 to +3.5

Line Closing Trend: +3.5 (+3 rare)

Result: Indianapolis Blowout (41-21)

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals (October 24, 2020)

Recreational book Bovada had the Cardinals as a +3.5 dog the entire week with the exception of a brief time earlier where they listed the team at +3.

Heritage also held onto +3.5 throughout the week.

Bookmaker held onto +3.5 until 24 hours before kickoff, at which point the book moved this line down to +3, then back up to +3.5 the minutes before kickoff.

Spread Range: +3 to +3.5

Line Closing Trend: +3.5

Result: Arizona wins by 3 points (37-34)

- Tyrone Black, Gambling911.com

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