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NFL Betting – Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:
Dec/17/2020

The marquee matchup on the Week 15 NFL slate is also a possible Super Bowl preview when the Kansas City Chiefs visit the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. The reigning champion Chiefs have already clinched their fifth straight AFC West title and enter the week as the No. 1 seed in the conference. The Saints had their nine-game winning streak snapped last week in Philadelphia and are tied with Green Bay for the top spot in the NFC, though the Packers hold the head-to-head advantage. Kansas City opened as a 3-point road favorite in the first meeting between the teams since 2016.  Bookmaker.eu is offering a generous welcome bonus (max bonus $1600)

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints
Date and Time: Sunday, December 20, 2020, 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
NFL Odds: Kansas City -3, O/U 51.5
Chiefs at Saints TV Coverage: CBS

Odds Analysis

Kansas City is winning games, they just aren’t dominating opponents. Since a 35-9 payout win over the Jets in Week 8, the Chiefs have survived winning their last five games by a combined 21 points. They are 0-5 ATS in those matchups. They hit the board as a 3.5-point favorite with the line wagered down to -3. Their ability to win close games when not playing their best shows that Kansas City is the team to beat. Despite three Patrick Mahomes interceptions and four turnovers, the Chiefs overcame a 10-0 deficit to beat Miami 33-27 last week, their eighth straight. The Dolphins got the backdoor cover on a late field goal dropping KC to 6-7 ATS. It’s rare to see the Saints as a home dog. It’s happened just seven times since 2015. It might be wise to take the points since they are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in those games. The Saints had their nine-game winning streak end in Philly with a 24-21 setback as a 7.5-point favorite. It was their first loss ATS in six games dropping them to 7-6 ATS for the season.

Kansas City Chiefs

Thanks to back-to-back losses by the Steelers, the Chiefs are the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That carries a lot more weight this season with only the top team receiving a first round bye. And we saw what KC did last year when watching the wild card round. So with the AFC West title secured, don’t expect them to ease up with so much still on the line.

And we haven’t seen Mahomes take his foot off the gas. Overcoming three interceptions, Mahomes threw for 393 yards against the Dolphins to spearhead a comeback. It was his sixth straight 300-plus passing yard game. He had thrown just two interceptions entering the game. “You don’t want to turn the ball over and put your defense in that situation,” he explained. Mahomes more than made up for it leading the Chiefs to their eighth straight win.

Mahomes is having another exceptional season using all his resources. Travis Kelce leads the NFL in receiving yards and Tyreek Hill has scored 16 touchdowns. The Chiefs haven’t been as explosive offensively as we’ve seen in past seasons yet they lead the league in total offense with over 429 yards per game and boast the second-highest scoring unit with 31 points per contest. Protecting Mahomes against a strong saints pass rush could be a problem with linemen Mitchell Schwartz, Eric Fisher and Mike Remmers all listed as questionable.

New Orleans Saints

For the first time in the last two seasons the Saints lost a game with their backup quarterback. Teddy Bridgewater was perfect last year and Taysom Hill was undefeated until last week’s defeat in Philadelphia. It looks like Drew Brees is close to making a return from rib and lung injuries that put him on the shelf the last month. “He’s got a ways to go still, and he’s someone we’re not going to just hurry back and just put him in the game. The significance of the injuries are such that you’ve got to make sure he can function and feel confident,” Sean Payton said of Brees.

The passing game hasn’t been as lethal with Hill, but the Saints have been able to run the football. They’ll look to expose the Chiefs’ 26th ranked run defense behind a ground game that averages 137.3 yards. The Saints were forced to throw the football last week in an effort to overcome a 17-point deficit and Hill had a career-best 291 passing yards with two touchdowns. However, he turned the ball over twice, including his fifth lost fumble of the year.

The Saints haven’t lost a lot of games over the years and they’ve usually been good following a defeat. They are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games coming off a loss and can secure another NFC South title with a win and a Tampa Bay loss. And the Saints need to show they are a legitimate contender with a strong rebound effort after a dismal loss to a bad Eagles club.

Bet Chiefs at Saints at BookMaker.eu

Kansas City has been living on the edge with so many close games recently. At some point you expect things to go the other way, that’s how the law of averages works. And the Saints are in need of a strong effort after getting gouged on the ground by Philly. They’ve been strong all season on defense and the group will do enough to slow Mahomes and Co. to get the upset win.

NFL Score Prediction: Saints 27, Chiefs 24

Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.

- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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