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NBA Basketball Preseason Prop Betting: Playoff Specials Part 4

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
Sep/18/2019

We’ll take a break from a busy NFL and college football season to look at some more of the NBA playoff props.  We’ve been running down the list over the past month trying to find some value positions.  This is the best time of the year to look for value in futures betting for both basketball and hockey.  It’s essential to stay focused on value.  For example, the Los Angeles Clippers are -1500 to make the playoffs.  They likely will, but at a price that has an implied probability of 93.8% there’s just not any value in backing them to do so. It’s also a good idea to be a contrarian in most elements of sports betting but particularly futures betting.  Look to bet against the ‘obvious side’ and particularly if it’s one that has the backing of the ‘public’:

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NBA BASKETBALL PLAYOFF SPECIALS

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES TO MAKE PLAYOFFS

YES: +800
NO: -1250

The Memphis Grizzlies are an interesting mix of talented young prospects like Murray State pointguard Ja Morant and long in the tooth veterans like Joakim Noah and Andre Iguodala.  No clue how many of the veterans will actually spend any time in a Grizzlies uniform as they’re likely just trying to take the rejects of other teams and stockpile some draft picks in the process.  They’ve got a great nucleus of young talent and with the right personnel moves they could make some noise in the next couple of seasons.  They just look to be a year away and hard to see them finding traction in the brutally tough Western Conference.  Can’t see them making the playoffs this season but can’t justify laying this big price with so much promising talent.

PASS

MIAMI HEAT TO MAKE PLAYOFFS

YES: -280
NO: +240

The Heat acquired Jimmy Butler in a four team trade during the offseason.  He’s supposed to be ‘Dwayne Wade’s replacement’ but he’s no D-Wade.  The Heat finished two games out of the playoffs this season and no guarantee they’ll make that up this year.

MIAMI HEAT TO MAKE PLAYOFFS—NO +240

MILWAUKEE BUCKS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS

YES: -1500
NO: +1000

While there’s a good reason to expect the Bucks to regress somewhat this year—and particularly with many of their Eastern Conference competitors getting better—there’s no way they regress so much they miss the playoffs.  Can’t lay that price though.

PASS

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES TO MAKE PLAYOFFS

YES: +400
NO: -500

The Timberwolves are a very tough team to figure out.  Do they have a plan?  They’ve got some talented players but they also finished 12 games out of the final playoff spot in the West last year. The two teams immediately ahead of them (Sacramento and the Lakers) should be better as should the two teams immediately behind them (Memphis and New Orleans).  Can’t see them making their way to the post season with the West looking even tougher than it was last year.  Once again, better value elsewhere.

PASS

NEW ORLEANS PELICANS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS

YES: +210
NO: -250

The Pelicans might be the most intriguing team in the NBA.  They got a huge haul from the Lakers in the Anthony Davis deal and are just loaded with promising prospects.  Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram, Jahlil Okafor and a guy named Zion Williamson that’s supposed to be pretty good.  Sure, the West is loaded but this team is going to be ridiculously exciting.  Why not take the price that the Pelicans slip in the back door to the postseason?

BET NEW ORLEANS PELICANS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS—YES +210

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