MLB Betting Picks June 19 – New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

Wednesday’s finale will decide the three-game series between NL East foes New York Mets and Atlanta Braves after each squad won large. New York squared the series with a 10-2 victory on Tuesday and looks to close the gap in the division with a win.

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The Mets find themselves 7.5 games behind the Braves and need to capitalize on the head-to-head meetings in order to make up ground. Steven Matz gets the assignment for the New Yorkers against Max Fried in a battle of lefties than can be wagered on at BookMaker.eu and watched on MLB Network.

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

Date and Time: Wednesday, June 19, 2019, 7:20 p.m. ET

Location: SunTrust Park, Cumberland, GA

Probable Pitchers: Steven Matz vs. Max Fried

Opening MLB Odds: Atlanta -155, New York +135, O/U 9.5 (Atlanta -148 Wednesday morning)

Mets at Braves TV Coverage: MLB Network

Odds Analysis

Despite their offseason acquisitions and arms at the top of the rotation, it hasn’t been the start the Mets were hoping for. Nearly three months into the campaign and they are just trying to get to the breakeven point before thinking about a run at the Braves. The Mets have been spinning their wheels since the start of June splitting their last 14 games and going 7-9 this month. They have been on a run on the total cashing the over in the first two games of the series and in seven of their last eight contests overall.

A recent stretch that saw the Braves win 10 of 11 games created some separation within the division. That run was slowed by Jacob deGrom on Tuesday when the Mets ace silenced Atlanta’s hot bats. Over that 11-game span the Braves plated 90 runs, hit double-digits three teams and scored at least five times in all but one game. The Braves are on a heater of their own playing above the total in 10 straight games with the over going 4-1-1 in the first six games of the season series.

Probable Pitchers

It’s been nearly two weeks since the Braves faced a lefthanded starter, so Steven Matz ( 5-4, 3.93 ERA ) will be giving them a different look. And Matz has been consistent working exactly 6.0 innings in each of his last five starts. The results haven’t always been perfect but Matz owns a 3.90 ERA over that stretch with 34 Ks and 11 walks over 30 innings.

In eight career starts against the Braves, Matz has never lost going 5-0 with a stellar 2.78 ERA across 45.1 innings. He beat Atlanta in April allowing two runs on four hits with eight strikeouts over 6.0 innings. He’s beaten the Braves more than any team.

While Matz has been consistent on the hill, Braves starter Max Fried ( 7-3, 4.11 ERA ) has not. The lefty was rocked for seven hits and five runs in just 4.2 innings by the Phillies in his last start. He’s failed to make it past the fifth inning in two of his last three outings while surrendering 13 earned runs on 22 hits, including four homers, in 14.2 frames over that span. He’s posted a 7.52 ERA with a .418 opponents OBP and saw his season ERA rise by a full run.

Fried is searching for consistency with his curveball, which he hasn’t had since opening the year with a 3-0 record and 1.38 ERA over his first five starts and seven appearances. Fried owns a 1.26 ERA in six career games against the Mets. This will be his third start against them.


Key Stat

It looks as though these team bring out the best offensively in each other. Over the first six games of the season series the winning team has scored at least six runs each time with the victor thrice managing to reach double figures. That’s happened in the first two games of the series with the Braves getting 12 on Monday and the Mets countering with 10 Tuesday night. The Braves have cashed the over in 13 straight home games and 10 in a row overall.

Bet Mets at Braves at BookMaker.eu

We’re due to have a close game between these two. The winning margin has been three runs or more in every game yet Atlanta has scored just two more runs in the six games. The Braves were on fire until facing deGrom on Tuesday night. Matz has been good, but he is hittable. And Fried has labored in his past three starts, so we’re likely to see more runs scored.

MLB Score Prediction: Braves 7, Mets 5

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