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Juventus vs. Torino Betting Preview

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
Jul/04/2020

The Serie A continues next weekend! The games will be played behind closed doors because of the COVID-19 pandemic and we will have an intriguing contest on Saturday when Juventus hosts Torino in the Derby della Mole.

Juventus leads the Serie A with 72 points in 29 games while Torino is in 14th place with 31 points in 29 games. Juventus is coming off a 3-1 road win against Genoa last Tuesday while Torino lost 2-1 at home against Lazio on Tuesday.

Let's take a closer look at where the betting value is in this matchup.

Betting Odds
 
Team to Win (Regular Time)

Juventus: -323
Torino: +725
Draw: +440

Spread

Juventus: -1.5 (-106)
Torino: +1.5 (-114)

Total

Over 2.5, 3 (-107)
Under 2,5, 3 (-113)

Key Points to Consider

Last 6:

Juventus, coming off 3-1 road win against Genoa, have four wins, two draws and zero losses in their last six overall. Torino, coming off a 2-1 home loss against Lazio, have four losses, one win and one draw in their last six overall.

Momentum: Torino has been on a downward trend -- losing their last four games in the Serie A.

Head-to-Head: These two teams last met in Serie A action on November 2, 2019 and Juventus won 1-0.

Projected Leaders

Simulations I have run project Cristiano Ronaldo, Paulo Dybala, Matthijs de Ligt, Miralem Pjanić and Andrea Belotti as the players most likely to score (four of these five players are from Juventus).

There is a 12.9 percent chance of a draw. In simulations where the game is not a draw, Juventus, at 82.9 percent, are heavy favorites to beat Torino, who have a 4.2 percent chance to win on the road.

The leading scorer for Juventus is Cristiano Ronaldo with a 73.0 percent chance of getting one or more goals. When he has at least one goal, Juventus has a 91 percent chance to win.

These two teams are heading in opposite directions, Juventus has played well as of late while Torino is reeling. Juventus has to keep winning to keep Lazio four points behind in the race to win the Serie A and they're clearly the better team here.

Soccer Pick Courtesy of Realbookies: Juventus -1.5 (-106)

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