Early Hot Line Movements MLB - April 28

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:

Early game aggressive line movements include the total on the Marlins-Phillies 8.5 to 7.5, the Nationals -125 to -105 (we have even seen -135 to -105) and the Reds-Cardinals total 8.5 to 7.5. 



Marlins vs. Phillies

With a total moving from 8.5 to 7.5, one has to look at the UNDER.  The starting pitching here doesn't suggest an UNDER though.

Six of the last ten meetings between these two teams have resulted in the total runs going OVER the 7.5.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Marlins RH Pablo Lopez (2-3, 4.44 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Zach Eflin (2-3, 4.15)

Lopez gave up 11 earned runs over his first three starts but has turned things around by yielding just two in 11 1/3 innings over his last two outings. He lasted a season-high 6 1/3 innings in a win at Cleveland on Tuesday. The 23-year-old faced the Phillies once as a rookie last year and let up a run in six frames while fanning five.

Eflin lasted just four innings in two of his last three starts, including a loss at Miami on April 13 in which he was tagged for six runs and 10 hits. He is 0-3 with a 7.07 ERA over his last three starts while allowing five home runs in 14 innings. The former sandwich pick owns a 5.52 ERA in five career starts versus Miami.

Padres vs. Nationals

This one has moved from Washington -125 to -105, so with this in mind we would want to focus on San Diego. 

The Padres are 16-11 compared to the Nats 11-14.  The Nationals have one of the worst bullpens in Major League Baseball.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Padres RH Joey Lucchesi (3-2, 4.33 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Jeremy Hellickson (2-0, 4.34)

Lucchesi came up one out shy of a quality start last time out, ending a two-game losing streak by allowing one run and five hits while striking out a season-high eight to beat Cincinnati. He turned in his longest outing in his previous turn versus Colorado but took the loss after giving up five runs and a pair of homers in seven innings. Making only his second start on the road, where he was 3-4 with a 4.24 ERA in 2018, Lucchesi tossed five innings of one-run ball in a no-decision versus the visiting Nationals last year.

After facing fireballers Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in the first two games of the series, San Diego gets a break of sorts against Hellickson, who is coming off his worst start -- a loss in which he was knocked around for five runs and nine hits over five innings. He won his previous two turns with 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball against San Francisco and six scoreless innings at Philadelphia. Wil Myers is 6-for-14 with two homers off Hellickson, who was 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA in two starts versus the Padres in 2018.

San Diego has won the last three games against Washington, including two in this current series.

The Padres are looking for their sixth straight win.

The Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Reds vs. Cardinals

The total moved from 8.5 to 7.5.

You would want to look at the UNDER here with this move.

Five of the last ten games between these two teams have gone UNDER the current total of 7.5, however, the other five have mostly gone way OVER that number (1-12, 5-9 recently).

PITCHING MATCHUP: Reds RH Sonny Gray (0-3, 3.65 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Jack Flaherty (2-1, 5.25)

Gray almost pulled off his first win on Tuesday against Atlanta but surrendered three runs in the sixth inning and was charged with four in 5 1/3 frames without factoring in the decision. The Vanderbilt product struck out nine in each of his last two outings and is up to 31 Ks in 24 2/3 innings. Gray spent the first six seasons of his career in the American League and is facing St. Louis for the first time.

Flaherty served up three home runs against Milwaukee on Monday but struck out 10 over six innings and ended up with the win. The 23-year-old owns 32 strikeouts in 24 innings while walking five and yielding seven home runs through his first five turns. Flaherty made two starts against Cincinnati last season and went 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA while striking out 13 in 10 total innings.

The UNDER is 21-4-1 in Reds last 26 road games and 21-5 in Reds last 26 games following a loss.

The OVER is 8-0 in Flahertys last 8 starts overall.

2019 MLB Record: 7-3-1 (70%)

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 7-4 (63.4%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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