CFB Betting – Texas AM Aggies at Alabama Crimson Tide

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

Even in a pandemic-riddled season some things in the SEC never change. The Alabama Crimson Tide are the top dogs and the Texas AM Aggies are chasing them. Jimbo Fisher’s squad looks to change that this week when his club pays a visit to Tuscaloosa in a matchup of top-20 teams. Both teams opened their season last week with the Aggies struggling to get past Vanderbilt, 17-12. Alabama doubled up Missouri, 38-19, in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. Bama has won the last seven meetings by an average of three touchdowns and the Tide hit the board as a 17-point favorite to extend that number to eight.  Bookmaker is offering a generous signup bonus (max bonus $1600)

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Texas AM Aggies at Alabama Crimson Tide
Date and Time: Saturday, October 3, 2020, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
CFB Odds: Alabama -17, O/U 52
Texas AM at Alabama TV Coverage: CBS

Odds Analysis

Alabama is always a favorite among college football bettors, so when the SEC announced the return of football, Bama backers were jumping for joy. The home team got plenty of love from the public on the early line pushing the Tide to a 17-point favorite. After what happened last week I wouldn’t be surprised to see the line go even higher. After falling behind Vandy 3-0, the Aggies grabbed the lead and never trailed but they couldn’t put away the pesky Dores, settling for a 17-12 win in a game they were favored by 31.5 points. Bama also failed to cover the hefty 28.5-point line giving up 13 points over the final 16 minutes in their 38-19 win over Missouri. AM’s only win in the series since joining the SEC came back in 2012 with Johnny Football running around Bryan-Denny Stadium. Bama has been favored by at least 11.5 points in five of the last six meetings going 4-2 ATS in those games.

Texas AM Aggies

With an experienced quarterback in Kellen Mond, the leading rusher and receiver from a season ago, and four starting offensive linemen back for another shot, the Aggies are expected to put up big numbers offensively. They may still, but they’ll have to play a lot better than they did against Vanderbilt last week. And with a gauntlet of games coming up there’s little margin for error. After this tilt the Aggies have Florida and Mississippi State.

Eliminating mistakes would be a good place to start. The Aggies put the ball on the ground five times turning it over on three occasions with Mond losing it twice. Your veteran quarterback who’s been around the system for like 10 years shouldn’t be doing that. They also committed a penalty that resulted in a safety. “A victory is a victory, but all three phases didn’t play how I thought we could or how we can,” Fisher said.

Mond certainly didn’t make up for his miscues. He threw for 189 yards on 17 of 28 passing. Thanks to a monster second half from Isaiah Spiller the Aggies were able keep Vandy at bay. Spiller had 117 yards on only eight carries and the Aggies produced 187 yards on the ground. Defense will have to show up this week to slow down Bama. The Aggies allowed only 255 yards and intercepted two passes. It was a good effort against a young team. The group will be severely tested by the Tide’s playmakers this week.

Alabama Crimson Tide

It was a much more subdued atmosphere in Alabama’s opener. There were no close calls, the offense clicked and defensively they spent a lot of time in Missouri’s backfield. And Nick Saban used plenty of players to get his team prepared for the shortened SEC-only schedule. How is life after Tua? That was the big question coming in. Mac Jones got his feet wet plenty in big game situations last year. And he has weapons at his disposal that were all on display last week.

Jones threw for 249 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 18 of 24 passing getting the Tide to a 35-3 lead before taking a seat in the third quarter. And he made sure his playmakers got their hands on the football. Najee Harris rushed for 98 yards and three touchdowns and Jaylen Waddle had eight catches for 134 yards and two scores. “Waddle is a great player. He gets open and he does a great job doing it,” Jones said of his top target. Bama totaled 414 yards and was 9 of 14 on third down conversions.

As smooth as the offense operated, the defense was just as good. Bama kept Mizzou out of the end zone until midway through the fourth quarter. The return of Dylan Moses, who missed last season due to injury, is a boost to the group. Missouri finished with 322 total yards with a big chunk of that coming in the fourth quarter against players further down the depth chart.

Bet Texas AM at Alabama at BookMaker.eu

There must have been a reason why Saban wanted the season to start. After watching Bama crush Missouri in the opener, I think I know why. We say this every year: Bama is loaded. And that’s the case in 2020. Jones doesn’t have to be Superman, just get the ball to his playmakers and let them do the rest. Mond has tried three times to beat the Tide and has failed. It’s not happening this week.

CFB Score Prediction: Alabama 42, Texas AM 21

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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