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2022 Post Position Draw: The Good and the Bad

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
May/02/2022

The post position draw took place Monday afternoon for the 2022 Kentucky Derby.  Based on history, some entries will have a slight advantage while others might be seen as having a significant disadvantage.  The odds most always shift following the draw with live odds found here.

BOL-Kentucky-Derby-2022.png

Though the Number one post position looks attractive on paper due to the 8 wins, that has not been the case in past decades.   The outside posts are mostly dreaded by trainers. 

Christina Moore of Americas Best Racing explains the reasoning behind this:

Horses on the outside are usually subject to less bumping, but if they don’t make it across the track before the first turn they can be left wide. In the Kentucky Derby the turns account more than 40% of the 1 ¼-mile race. Assuming the width needed for a racehorse and rider is four feet, for every path off the rail, a horse runs more than 25 feet farther. A horse six paths off the rail on both turns will run 150 feet farther than a horse on the rail, making their race that much more grueling. It’s important to find a balance between far enough inside to save ground and far enough outside that a horse can easily maneuver to be in the clear when the real running starts: the homestretch.

Mo Donegal ended up in the One spot.

It could be worse.  Classic Causeway gets to start from a Number 17 position that has yeilded zero winners.

19 and 20 are not exactly the most appealing.  Those spots have each produced two winners.  Zozos and Ethereal start from those two spots.

Five and ten have produced 10 and 9 winners, respectively. 

Smile Happy starts at the 5 spot.  Zandon at 3-1 odds starts at the number 10 post position.

2022 Kentucky Derby odds, horses, post positions

Program # Horse Odds Past Winners
1 Mo Donegal 10-1 8
2 Happy Jack 30-1 7
3 Epicenter 7-2 5
4 Summer is Tomorrow 30-1 5
5 Smile Happy 20-1 10
6 Messier 8-1 2
7 Crown Pride 20-1 8
8 Charge It 20-1 8
9 Tiz the Bomb 30-1 4
10 Zandon 3-1 9
11 Pioneer of Medina 30-1 2
12 Taiba 12-1 3
13 Simplification 20-1 5
14 Barber Road 30-1 2
15 White Abarrio 10-1 6
16 Cyberknife 20-1 4
17 Classic Causeway 30-1 0
18 Tawny Port 30-1 2
19 Zozos 20-1 1
20 Ethereal Road 30-1 1

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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