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10/25/03 12:38 PM EST
Going Against Public Teams Can Be Winning
Strategy
www.docsports.com
By Jeremy Martin
Bettors are evidently just as fickle as the general public
when it comes to college and pro football. When the St. Louis Rams made their
remarkable rise to powerhouse status in the NFL a few years ago, ‘fans’ from all
over the country began sporting Faulk and Warner jerseys – fresh from the
shelves – that still had the fold creases showing on them. At the same time, in
the sports betting industry, money started to funnel in at books all across Las
Vegas as the Rams took on ‘public team’ status. Of course, when they started to
lose during the 2002 season, the public jumped ship. And all those fans sporting
those Faulk and Warner jerseys promptly exchanged them for Tampa Bay attire.
Although the public is indecisive when picking a team to
back for the long haul, it does go all out at the betting window when a team is
doing well. In fact, bookmakers in Las Vegas and around the world participate in
the practice of ‘shading,’ which is the process of adding extra points to the
line for a public team that is going to see a lot of one-way action in a
particular game. Shading reduces the liability on a game for the books and gives
them a chance at two-way action from the sophisticated bettors who find value in
going against the inflated number.
“(Shading) is done to a degree by the oddsmakers and then
again by the sportsbooks,” said Bob Scucci, race and sportsbook manager for the
Stardust Resort and Casino. “If a team is legitimately a six-point favorite and
they are a public team, you may want to shade them up to that critical seven
because you know it is going to be bet up to seven anyways eventually, or you
may want to draw some initial money on the underdog by some of the professional
bettors who see value there.
“Sometimes the shading happens on too many levels. The
oddsmakers may shade it a little bit when they send out their opinions and (then
the sportsbooks will also shade it). By the time it hits the board it has
already been shaded two or three times. At that point, the sophisticated bettor
may see a lot of value there and there can be a lot of money made betting
against public teams.”
Even though issues such as power rankings, trends and
injuries are an important part of the bookmaking process, there is no more
significant factor than anticipating where the money will go on a particular
game, according to Doug Beil, race and sportsbook manager for Terrible’s
Hotel/Casino. A good example was the Tampa Bay/San Francisco match-up last
Sunday. The Buccaneers had been on that list of squads that were considered
public teams, and they ended up opening at –3 ½ and moving all the way to -5 ½
before kickoff. Beil states that the true line should have been closer to three
and that smart bettors found great value in the Niners, who ended up winning the
game outright. It’s safe to say that after the loss, Tampa Bay lost their public
team status.
“The true number based on home-and-away and the teams was
probably Tampa Bay, –3, but we know we are going to get money on Tampa Bay here
– the Niners had looked like crap and the Buccaneers are the defending champs,
the public team – so (we) open them at –3 ½. You can usually get a better number
late or closer to game time. (The Tampa Bay game) was at –3 ½ Saturday at noon.
Before kickoff it was as high as –5 ½. At five or 5 ½ that number is kind of
dead. But if you go from -3 ½ and you cross four, well four is a key number so
that’s an advantage if you really like the 49ers.”
Public teams change every year. Often times, a team can
gain public team status and lose it in the same season. During the current
season, there have been no bigger public teams than Kansas City and Minnesota.
Of course, these two squads are the lone undefeated teams in the NFL. Other
teams like the Broncos and Buccaneers have held public team status at times
throughout the season, but lost it when they started losing on the field.
Back in the days of dynasties in the NFL, public teams
could hold on to that distinction for years. A perfect example of this is the
Dallas Cowboys. During the 1970s and the 1990s, ‘America’s Team’ won several
Super Bowls and always received heavy action at the betting windows. But once
they started to have some losing seasons, the public quickly lost its
enthusiasm.
“Typically, in the last couple of decades, you couldn’t get
a more public team than the Cowboys,” said Scucci. “Then they went into some of
their down years, after Aikman left and they went through some rough times. Now
it seems with (Coach Bill) Parcells, they have come right back to form and they
have become as public of a team as they have ever been in the past.”
“Certainly if you go back to the Dallas teams that were so
good for so long, they were a public team for 5, 6, 7 years in a row,” added
Beil. “But now in the NFL teams can drastically change so quickly it really goes
year-to-year. The bettors adjust quickly. Last year they were betting Oakland
every week and now they are not. With the salary cap and the current situation
in the NFL, it is going to be that way. It didn’t used to be that way. The teams
that were great could stay together for years and years. But right now it is a
lot more difficult to do that.”
College clubs actually have more of a chance to hold on to
public team status, because there are programs like Miami and Oklahoma which
have been able to put together great seasons on a consistent basis. But college
bettors are also fickle. If a team doesn’t live up to expectations, the bettors
will abandon them and they won’t look back.
“This year, after Michigan routed Central Michigan, Houston
and Notre Dame, we had an unbelievable amount of money bet on them against
Oregon,” said Beil. “So people were all ready to jump on the Michigan bandwagon.
You know, when they lost a couple of games that was the end of that.”
Although there can be advantages to betting against public
teams, Beil said that there are also dangers. “Public teams are teams that are
hot, and they tend to win and cover (the spread),” said Beil. “But the good
handicapper can really look for the spot when it is right to bet against these
teams. It’s not always right to bet against them.”
Despite the fact that the favorite teams of bettors are
always changing, some Las Vegas books that have regular visitors from certain
geographic regions deal with some public teams that may differ from the rest of
the industry. The Hard Rock Hotel & Casino has a high-volume of guests from
California and, according to Jamie Shea, race and sportsbook director, these
visitors will bet the Raiders, 49ers and Chargers no matter how bad the teams
are playing on the field.
“We get so much of a California crowd, that I end up
shading the Raiders a lot, the 49ers a little bit and the Chargers a little
bit,” she said. “It’s the same with USC and UCLA – all the California teams. I
might be ½ point off (from the rest of the betting industry), but that’s about
it. I may shade the money line a bit, but that’s about the extent that I am
going to be off from everyone else.”
Just like there are public teams, there are also teams that
the public always bets against. These are also situations where shading takes
place and bettors can gain an advantage if they pick the right spot.
“There are teams that people bet against no matter who is
playing them,” added Beil. “Right now I would have to say that Detroit, Arizona
and Chicago fit into that category. It doesn’t matter who plays the Lions right
now, people are going to bet against them. Sometimes you have to shade against
them, the ‘anti-public teams.’”
Jeremy Martin is the newest member of the Doc's Sports
team. His work has been widely published in both print and online media. For
more information or to contact Jeremy visit
www.docsports.com
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