Patriots Super Bowl 52 Path The 'Easiest Ever'

Written by:
Guest
Published on:
Jan/17/2018

Since 1990, no team with a bye has ever faced two weaker opponents than New England's pair of Tennessee and Jacksonville, so writes Neile Paine of ESPN.com.

Action was balanced with the Patriots as a -9 home favorite coming into Sunday's AFC Conference Championship game with the line having moved up and down between -8.5, where it opened, and -9.5.

Most of the experts believed that the only AFC teams capable of beating New England would be the Chiefs and Steelers.  Both were upset by their opponents, the Titans and Jaguars, respectively.

The logic, as proposed by Paine:

If we multiply together the Patriots’ pregame odds of beating the Titans (85 percent) with that of the Jaguars (81 percent), we could say they had a staggering 69 percent chance of making the Super Bowl before they ever played a game. (This is assuming we’d somehow know that both of their opponents would pull off the upsets they did.) That’s easily the best number for any conference title-game participant since 1990.

Of course, some of that is also because the Patriots are a very good team; they went into the playoffs with the sixth-best Elo of any Pats season since the Brady Era began in 2001. We shouldn’t penalize them for being so darned good that they created some of their own easy path. There’s an easy fix for this, though. We can swap out the Patriots’ Elo ratings for a generic rating of 1646, which represents the average for all conference title-game teams since 1990, and then recalculate the odds of reaching the Super Bowl against the opponents a team faced.

For our generic NFL “final four” team, that requires multiplying together a 77 percent chance against the Titans and a 71 percent chance against the Jaguars, which gives a 55 percent Super Bowl probability. In other words, that number represents the relative ease of any good team making it through the Pats’ specific path to the Super Bowl — and it’s the easiest of any championship-game entrant since 1990.

Just don't tell this to Rob Gronkowsky.

He believes the Jaguars are the best team New England is likely to face this season.

video News

Bitcoin Still a Buy Despite Recent Losses Says Blockchain Venture Capitalist

Bitcoin Still a Buy Despite Recent Losses Says Blockchain Venture Capitalist

Blockchain venture capitalist Spencer Bogart says bitcoin's increased number of use cases is proof that the coin is becoming more institutionalized.

Alexander Rossi Odds to Win the Indy 500 - 2018

Gambling911.com has Alexander Rossi odds to win this year's Indy 500 set at 7/1. He is the favorite to win.  This event takes place Memorial Day May 17, 2018 with bets needing to be placed before Noon EST.  Race time is 12:19 pm EST.

Fears Over NBA2K Viewership, Latest Odds May 25

Fears Over NBA2K Viewership, Latest Odds May 25

Let's face it, folks are loving this year's NBA Playoffs and NHL Playoffs more than ever before.  Bringing the eSports variant into play at this moment could make sense, but some are questioning the logic.  Viewership numbers may be proving the skeptics correct.

Chris Ferguson Apologizes for 'Black Friday' Involvement But Only Makes Matters Worse

Since re-emerging full time on the poker circuit last year (and winning big), Chris Ferguson has said nothing of his involvement in a ponzi scheme tied to Full Tilt Poker.  Now he's finally come out and apologized....sort of.

ESPN: Why Kirk Cousins is Primed for a Career Season with Vikings - Latest 2018 Odds

Kirk Cousins may very well be the richest quarterback in the NFL right now. He's guaranteed $84 million with the Minnesota Vikings.

Syndicate