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The San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders line opened at San Diego -7 and has moved up to -9 at some online sports books. Here is a red alert: There is a middling opportunity in this game. SBG Global had this one at San Diego -7 ½ while betED.com had the Raiders at +9. Hence, if you were to bet both sides and San Diego wins by 8 points, you would win both bets. The odds of this happening are especially low but there is an excellent opportunity here nonetheless. These odds were subject to change quickly, so placing your bets early is essential.
San Diego has owned this series, winning the last 9 games against Oakland stretching back to 2003. Six of those games were won by double digits including those two wins from last season. Their last three road games at Oakland were won by double digit numbers.
The Chargers are in no position to lose as they enter this game at 1-2 even though this is a team that should be 3-0. Make no mistake about it, San Diego is a superior team to Oakland, which just barely lost in the final seconds on the road against Buffalo. It should be pointed out that the Raiders look much better than last year's team and the coaching controversy doesn't seem to be having a negative effect as Oakland players have played well the past two weeks.
Nearly 90 percent of the action is on San Diego here and even more on the OVER 45 ½ to be scored.
Some very interesting facts about the Chargers and there is great reason why the bookmakers are moving this line in an effort to get more action on Oakland. Chargers are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. San Diego is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win, which Gambling911.com considers a very important stat. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Furthermore, the Chargers are 19-7-4 ATS in their last 30 vs. AFC West, an important stat in that they are playing a much weaker AFC West rival. Chargers are 40-17-3 ATS in their last 60 games on grass.
Raiders are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
So what should this line really be?
Gambling911.com has a large overlay on this game: 3 to 4 points. And there lies the concern. Despite impressive stats favoring San Diego, this road line may just be a little too high considering how close Oakland kept things over the past two weeks and how San Diego managed to lose its first two games by a mere 2 and 1 points, respectively. Overall, the Chargers have not played as well on the road. Last year, the team enjoyed a blowout in Denver after losing three straight. Their only other big road wins were in Kansas City and in Oakland, the final week where nothing really was at stake for the Raiders at least. San Diego had another road win in Tennessee, but that was in overtime.
So do we say: "Bet the Oakland Raiders"?
With all the chaos going on in Oakland, we'll hold back on that one. But for those of you who think San Diego is a "given" here, you may want to think good and hard.
Pass on this game. We think it is possible the bookies will make out well on this one, which just happened to be the most heavily bet on matchup early on.
If you must do anything, consider that middling opportunity since the risk is so minute.
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Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher
