Michigan State vs. Indiana odds opened at Michigan State as the -8 ½ road favorite with the line only moving down a half point at some online sports books like BetOnline.com
82 percent of the action was going Michigan State's way.
The home team has won the last three in this series. Michigan State has won five of the last six and covered all five of those times dating back to 2002. And the reason Michigan State covered was because they won by 10 or more points. In 2006, Michigan State was a -6 ½ road favorite and Indiana won, but that was a bit of an upset.
Over the last three games, The Spartans have won by more than 16 points. They lost their first game against California by 7 points as a +6 ½ underdog.
Indiana got clobbered by Ball State last week.
Some powerful stats that we really like here: The Spartans are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Michigan is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass, which is an important stat we look at when studying an away team.
The Hoosiers also have a few strong stats going their way. They are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Indiana is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
But there is some bad news for the Hoosiers. They are 5-13 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
It's also interesting that there appears to be a huge line discrepancy here, which is often a sign that a game will go the other way. Gambling911.com believes this line, under normal circumstances, would be Indiana -1 ½.
The Hoosiers 1-5 ATS record in their last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game pretty much cancels out that 7-0-1 ATS record in their last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The stats in favor of Michigan State including past head-to-head history between these two teams is far more superior.
We will be all over Michigan State in this one at -8 points.
