Poker Pro Daniel Negreanu Offers Debate Strategy to Candidates Trump and Clinton

Written by:
Guest
Published on:
Sep/25/2016
  • Trump could be at big disadvantage in a heads-up debate against Clinton, , “your weaknesses get magnified” when going one-on-one
  • Trump seems incapable of folding the political equivalent of bad cards, Negreanu suggests
  • The key is, she has to hit him where it hurts so he gets off-track and reckless but Clinton also cannot afford to wait for this to happen
  • It’s good strategy to counter your opponent’s playing style. So if someone is folding reasonably strong hands, it’s best to play weaker hands

The biggest money earner in poker, Daniel Negreanu, has offered some debate strategy taken straight from his favorite game.  

Heads-Up Strategy:

From Wired:

In heads-up play, “your weaknesses get magnified.” When there are only two players, you can’t avoid those ante bets, which makes it expensive to fold pretty-good cards. That means you may have to play hands you’re less sure of, a much more difficult prospect. As Negreanu puts it, “in heads-up, you have to have a grasp of the technical aspect of poker”—the underlying math that determines which hands to play.  That could pose a challenge to Trump, who so far has only debated on a crowded stage.

Negreanu urges both candidates to “get aggressive”.

Negreanu says that most players try to set traps for their opponents. If they know they are playing against an aggressive player, for instance, they will pretend to have weaker hands than they actually hold, counting on their opponent to bet heavily. That seems an obvious strategy to use against Trump, who seems incapable of folding the political equivalent of bad cards. When the parents of a fallen soldier spoke out against him at the Democratic National Convention, he attacked them instead of changing the subject.

Of Clinton taking on Trump, Negreanu says, “The key is, she has to hit him where it hurts so he gets off-track and reckless,” Negreanu says. “Then she can just sit back and say, ‘See?'”

But Negreanu says Clinton can’t wait forever for that moment to occur. And this is where poker psychology comes in. In cards, it’s helpful to know what your opponent thinks of you, and then to subvert those expectations. For instance, if someone has a reputation for playing aggressively, it might behoove them to only play strong hands, because their opponent is more likely to assume they’re bluffing. Clinton may expect Trump to be aggressive, but Trump’s team is surely aware of that expectation. “It would be smart for his campaign to throw a curve ball to keep her off balance,” Negreanu says. “If he shows up presidential and relaxed and she’s unable to shake him, he wins.” (Then again, he presumably knows that she might be anticipating this counter-programming, in which case he may try to catch her unawares by debating exactly as anyone might expect him to.)

Generally speaking, it’s good strategy to counter your opponent’s playing style. So if someone is folding reasonably strong hands, it’s best to play weaker hands.

Here are your US 1st Presidential Debate Odds Offered by BetOnline:

Monday, Sep 26, 2016

1st Presidential Debate - Hillary Clinton to use exact phrase

Basket of deplorables

09:00 PM

2051

Yes

 

+600

 

2052

No

 

-1000

 

1st Presidential Debate - Hillary Clinton to use exact phrase

Tiny hands

09:00 PM

2053

Yes

 

+1200

 

2054

No

 

-2500

 

1st Presidential Debate - Hillary Clinton to use exact phrase

Trump University

09:00 PM

2055

Yes

 

+200

 

2056

No

 

-260

 

Monday, Sep 26, 2016

1st Presidential Debate - Donald Trump to use exact phrase

Build a wall

09:00 PM

2107

Yes

 

+145

 

2108

No

 

-175

 

1st Presidential Debate - Donald Trump to use exact phrase

Crooked Hillary

09:00 PM

2101

Yes

 

+145

 

2102

No

 

-175

 

1st Presidential Debate - Donald Trump to use exact phrase

Founded ISIS

09:00 PM

2103

Yes

 

+220

 

2104

No

 

-280

 

1st Presidential Debate - Donald Trump to use exact phrase

Make America great again

09:00 PM

2105

Yes

 

-600

 

2106

No

 

+400

 

Monday, Sep 26, 2016

1st Presidential Debate - Either Candidate to use exact phrase

All lives matter

09:00 PM

2013

Yes

 

+400

 

2014

No

 

-600

 

1st Presidential Debate - Either Candidate to use exact phrase

Black lives matter

09:00 PM

2011

Yes

 

+300

 

2012

No

 

-400

 

1st Presidential Debate - Either Candidate to use exact phrase

Blue lives matter

09:00 PM

2015

Yes

 

+700

 

2016

No

 

-1250

 

1st Presidential Debate - Either Candidate to use exact phrase

Obamacare

09:00 PM

2019

Yes

 

-300

 

2020

No

 

+240

 

1st Presidential Debate - Either Candidate to use exact phrase

Twitter

09:00 PM

2021

Yes

 

-115

 

2022

No

 

-115

 

1st Presidential Debate - Either Candidate to use exact phrase

Vladimir Putin

09:00 PM

2027

Yes

 

+120

 

2028

No

 

-150

 

1st Presidential Debate - Either Candidate to use exact phrase

Wall Street

09:00 PM

2017

Yes

 

-260

 

2018

No

 

+200

 

1st Presidential Debate - Either Candidate to use exact phrase

Woman card

09:00 PM

2023

Yes

 

+175

 

2024

No

 

-220

 

Monday, Sep 26, 2016

1st Presidential Debate - General Props

Donald Trump to wear red tie

09:00 PM

2021

Yes

 

-900

 

2022

No

 

+550

 

1st Presidential Debate - General Props

Head to Head - Most times used

09:00 PM

2201

Hillary Clinton +2½ Emails

 

-120

 

2202

Donald Trump -2½ Emails

 

-110

 

1st Presidential Debate - General Props

Head to Head - Most times used

09:00 PM

2203

Hillary Clinton +1½ Obama

 

-115

 

2204

Donald Trump -1½ Obama

 

-115

 

1st Presidential Debate - General Props

Head to Head - Most times used

09:00 PM

2205

Hillary Clinton -1½ Economy

 

-140

 

2206

Donald Trump +1½ Economy

 

+110

 

1st Presidential Debate - General Props

Head to Head - Most times used

09:00 PM

2207

Hillary Clinton +1½ America

 

+115

 

2208

Donald Trump -1½ America

 

-140

 

1st Presidential Debate - General Props

Head to Head - Most times used

09:00 PM

2209

Hillary Clinton -½ Jobs

 

-105

 

2210

Donald Trump +½ Jobs

 

-125

 

1st Presidential Debate - General Props

Head to Head - Most times used

09:00 PM

2211

Hillary Clinton -1½ Tax returns

 

-150

 

2212

Donald Trump +1½ Tax returns

 

+120

 

1st Presidential Debate - General Props

Nielsen Rating Head to Head

09:00 PM

2027

MNF (ATL @ NO)

 

+2000

 

2028

Presidential Debate

 

-5000

 

 

-  Nagesh Rath, Gambling911.com

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