Poker hand odds - poker odds

Knowing your poker hand odds is a key essential tool for any serious player.  Poker hand odds are the chances of you making a hand in Texas Hold' Em. There are times in Texas Hold ‘Em when you know you are behind in the hand but it makes sense to call based on the poker odds.  Often there might be 4 or 5 players in a hand where the pot has been raised and called around. You're holding 8 9 of spades and call two bets before the flop where you may have the 3rd or 4th best hand at that point.  The flop comes 7 of spades 10 of spades Q of hearts.  What do you do at this point?

First, you have to figure out your poker hand odds, or how many outs you have. Let's do the math.  In this case you have lots of outs.  You have both a straight and a flush draw. The straight draw gives you 8 outs (all the 6's and all the J's) and the flush draw gives you 9 outs (all the spades in the deck) but remember you can't count the 6 and J of spades twice, so you really have 15 outs at this point, that's a good amount of outs.  Now, you know you have 2 cards and there are 3 community cards on the table. That means there are 47 unseen cards (52 - 2 - 3 = 47).  You have 15 outs with 47 cards unseen or a 54.1% chance of hitting your straight or flush.

Instead of explaining how we got 54.1%, I will provide a chart that tells you the odds of making your hand, based on the number of outs you have, after the flop has been dealt.  If you plan on becoming a serious Texas Hold ‘Em poker player, I strongly recommend committing this poker odds chart to memory.

Note:  While you are memorizing your chances, you can get an estimate by taking your outs and multiplying them by 4 for both the turn and the river or by 2 for either the turn or the river.

Example:  “Last night I was playing in a multi-table tourney at Bodog (quickly earning a name like River Stars).  I was dealt ‘AA’, and managed to get all my chips in pre-flop.  My opponent called with ‘QQ’. With the flop and turn helping neither of us, a ‘Q’ came on the river.  What are the chances of him getting that ‘Q’?  After the flop; 2 outs times 4 = 8% chance, after the turn 2 outs times 2 = 4% chance.

Next you need to realize that even though you have lots of outs, you’re most likely still way behind in the hand.  All you have is Q high, where there is a good chance somebody has made at least a pair of Queens, an overpair, or is drawing to a higher flush.  This is the time in the hand where other factors come into play.  Your position in the hand, the size of all bets in relation to the total amount of chips in the pot, the type of players that are at your table (loose-aggressive, tight-passive), the amount of chips you have in relation to everyone else, what stage of the event your in, and many others.  I will explain in more detail all of these factors in future articles.

Here in lies the beauty of Texas Hold ‘Em, how to navigate through these tough decisions and survive to fight another day.  What makes the difference between a good Hold ‘Em player and a great Hold ‘Em player is their knowledge of poker hand odds, and the judgment they exercise in playing these types of hands.  But one thing is for sure, every great player is aware of how many outs they have to draw on and so should you.

Here’s also some basic information you can put to use right away

Flush:

If you hold a four flush, the odds of catching it on the turn are 19.1%, on the river is 19.6%. Catching it on the turn or the river is 35.0%

Open-Ended Straight:

Odds of catching your card on the turn are 17.0%.  On the river, 17.4% and on the turn or the river, 31.5%  

Gut Shot Straight:

Odds of catching your card on the turn are 8.5%. Catching your card on the river is 8.7% and catching it on the turn or the river is 16.5%

Trips:

Turning your pair into Three-of-a-Kind on the turn is 4.3%.  Catching it on the river is also 4.3% and catching it at the turn or the river is 8.4%. With pocket pairs it is more likely you will catch it on the flop.  Odds of that are 11.8%.

Below are the odds of achieving each of the hands

Royal Flush Odds: 1 in 649,739

A, K, Q, J, 10 all of the same suit

Straight Flush Odds: 1 in 72,192

Any five card sequence in the same suit

Four of a Kind Odds: 1 in 4,164

All four cards of the same index

Full House Odds: 1 in 693

Three of a kind combined with a pair  

Flush Odds: 1 in 508

Any five cards of the same suit but not in sequence

Straight Odds: 1 in 254

Five cards in a sequence but not of the same suit

Three of a Kind Odds: 1 in 46

Three cards of the same index  

Two Pair Odds: 1 in 20

Two separate pairs

Pair Odds: 1 in 4

Two cards of the same rank

Never underestimate the importance of poker hand odds.  Know your outs and the chances of making your hand.

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Bones McCoy, www.gambling911.com

Originally published September 3, 2005 5:48 pm EST