Poker odds - Pot odds

With online poker, probability is a huge factor in Texas Hold 'Em, players use poker odds to determine their actions.

Here are a few basic terms associated with online poker odds followed up with examples:

Outs - The number of cards left in the deck that will improve your hand.
"I had four spades on the turn, so I had 9 outs to make that flush."

Pot Odds - The odds you get when analyzing the current size of the pot vs. your next call.
"There's $200 already in the pot, and only another $10 bet coming at me, so my pot odds are good if I hit that flush."

Bet Odds - The odds you get as a result of evaluating the number of callers to a raise. "With a 1 in 5 chance of hitting it and knowing all six of these guys are going to call my bet; my bet odds are also good."

Implied Odds - The odds you are getting after the assumed result of betting for the remainder of the hand. "Since I think these guys are going to call on the turn and river, my implied odds are excellent."



In Texas Hold 'Em, you commonly use outs and pot odds the most. This is just the starting point for those who want to learn about poker odds. If you can’t count very well, you better shake down the nearest punk kid for their math book, because that is how it's done. We start with simple division, the numerator will be the number of outs you have and the denominator is the number of cards left that we haven't seen. The result will be the percentage chance of making one of those outs. So, the math you will be doing will be dividing small numbers by 50 (pre-flop), 47 (after the flop), or 46 (after the turn).

Note: With online poker odds, you never factor the opponents' cards or the burn cards when figuring out how many cards are left, we only consider unseen cards.

Pot odds are just as easy as computing outs. You compare your outs to the size of the pot. If your chance of winning is significantly better than the ratio of the pot size to a bet, then you have good pot odds. If it's lower, then you have bad pot odds. Say you are in a $5/$10 Hold’ Em game with Eight-Nine and you are facing one opponent on the turn. You have an outside straight draw with a board of 3-7-10-A, and only the river card left to make it. Any 6 or any Jack will finish this straight, so you have 8 outs (four 6's and 4 J's left in the deck) and 46 unseen cards left. 8/46 is almost the same as a 1 in 6 chance of making it. Your only opponent bets $10. So if you take a $10 bet you could win $200. $200/$10 is 20, so you stand to make 20x more if you call. 1/6 is higher than 1/20, so pot odds say that calling wouldn't be a bad idea.

Note: With the last example, you probably had already invested a significant portion of that $200 pot. Do not play or fold because of that money you have in there that money is not yours anymore it’s the winners. And do not factor in money you have wagered on previous hands (tilt).

Next is to use bet odds and implied odds. This is a little tougher, because it involves predicting reactions of other players. With bet odds, you try to factor in how many people are going to call a raise. With implied odds, you're thinking about reactions for the rest of the hand. Here is an example of implied odds.

Say it's another $5/$10 Hold ‘Em game and you have four to the flush on the flop. Your neighbor bets, and everyone else folds. The pot is $50 at this point. First you figure out your chance of hitting your flush on the turn, this comes out to about 19.1% (about 1 in 5). You call this $5 bet vs. a $50 pot, so that's a 10x payout. 1/5 is higher than 1/10, so bet odds are okay, but you must consider that this guy's going to bet into you on the turn and the river. That's $5 plus two more $10 bets. So now you’re facing $25 more till the end of the hand. So you have to consider your chances of hitting that flush on the turn or the river, which makes it about 35% (better than 1 in 3 now), but you have to invest $25 for a finishing pot of $100. $100/$25 is 1 in 4. That's pretty close. But wait... if you don't make it on the turn, it'll change your outs and odds. You'll have a 19.6% chance of hitting the flush (little worse than 1 in 5), but a $20 investment for a finishing pot of $100! $100/$20 is 1 in 5. So the chances would take a nasty turn if you didn't hit it! What makes it even more complicated is if you did hit it on the turn, you could raise him back, and get an extra $20 or maybe even $40 in the pot.

Once you've mastered simple outs and pot odds, bet and implied odds are just a longer extension of these equations. The next time you play cards online at DoylesRoom.com (check out my review on it here), sit back and think about these things while you are playing and in no time it will all come natural to you.
 

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