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2012 Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw: We Rank Them From Best to Worst
The 2012 Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw have been drawn. The post positions tend to change odds dramatically for some contenders, and with good reason.
We have a full review of the post position history by scrolling down.
1 – Daddy Long Legs 30/1 odds
2 – Optimizer – 15/1
4 – Union Rags – 9/2
5 – Dullahan – 8/1 great value early morning line here.
6 – Bodemeister – One of the favorites to win the Derby after Union Rags. Decent position that has produced 6 wins. The new morning favorite after the draw at 4/1
7 – Rousing Sermon – 50/1 odds
8 – Creative Cause – This post position has produced four winners over the past two decades. 12/1
9 – Trinniberg – 50/1
10 – Daddy Knows Best – 15/1
11 – Alpha – 15/1
12 – Prospective – 20/1
13 – Went The Day Well – 20/1
14 – Hansen – The folks were thrilled he’ll be racing from here but the number 14 post position ranks among the worst. 50 years have passed since this spot produced a winner while no horse has even finished in the money from number 14. 10/1 odds.
15 – Gemologist - The number 15 has yielded 4 wins, all of which have been since 1984. 6/1 odds.
16 – El Padrino - 20/1
17 – Done Talking - The 17 and 19 positions have never won! 50/1
18 – Sabercat – Only one win from here. 50/1
19 – I’ll Have Another - The 17 and 19 positions have never won! 12/1 bad value all things considering how poorly this post position has performed in the past.
20 – Liaison – One of the worst post positions though Big Brown did it in 2008. 50/1
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One shouldn’t look at the post positions inclusively but rather as part of determining any edge a favored contender might have or, on the other side of the spectrum, the additional disadvantage for a Derby long shot.
For example, should a favored horse like Union Rags or Bodemeister end up in either the 1st or 5th position, their odds of winning are likely to increase.
The number one post position has won more times since 1900 than any other (though tied with the number 5 post position): 12. That said, only one horse has won from that position since 1964. The number 5 position has enjoyed some more recent success.
Likewise, an early long shot drawing either the number 17 or 19 post positions are pretty much doomed, if history has its say. The 17 and 19 positions have never won!
The number 18 post position hasn’t fared much better with only a single win back in 1982.
The number 2 post position has produced a total of 9 winning horses while the number 3 position has won a total of eight times and the number 4 position has yielded a total of 11 winners, as has the number 10 position.
There is an interesting irony in that both the number 6 and number 7 positions have produced their respective number of wins. The last time a horse racing from the number 7 position won was back in 1981.
The number 8 post position has enjoyed decent success in recent times with 4 horses winning from this position over the past two decades.
90 wins have come from the first 10 gates. As such, any horse taking off from beyond that post position would be deemed at a fairly significant disadvantage. Animal Kingdom last year, racing from the number 16 position, was one of the exceptions.
Number 9 has produced the lowest number of winners within the top 10 positions.
The last horse to win from the 11th post position was back in 1988 and, prior to this, you had to go back another 50 plus years. Only three horses in total have won from this position.
The number 15 position has yielded 4 wins, all of which have been since 1984, making it one of the better spots among the lower 20 positions and perhaps more advantageous than the 9 spot.
There have only been three winners produced from the number 12 and unlucky 13 spots.
The number 14 post position ranks among the worst. 50 years have passed since this spot produced a winner while no horse has even finished in the money from number 14.
Animal Kingdom won last year from 16, but one must ask him or her self what exactly are the odds of a horse winning from this position two years in a row? What are the odds of a horse winning from this position two years in a row when this position has only produced a total of three winners lifetime?
The number 20 position’s claim to fame is from Big Brown’s triumphant performance in 2008, but that’s about it.
Let’s now rank the 2012 Kentucky Derby post positions from best to worst. Note that at press time, the Derby contenders had not yet been drawn. The bolded numbers represent the most significant advantage/disadvantage on each side of the spectrum.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
Submitted by Dan Shapiro on Wed, 05/02/2012 - 10:41