Price Per Head Betting - Wins by Favorites Have Sportsbooks Frowning
It is no secret that most Price Per Head bettors are also favorite bettors. That's the way the public is. They bet favorites.
And as most people at WagerHome.com can tell you, the constant challenge is to be able to put up numbers that allow for enough underdog play to get a decent balance on the books.
Well, most online sportsbooks don't emphasize what the results of their customers' activity is, at least on a regular basis. But in Las Vegas, some of the sportsbook managers are rather open with the local press.
And they admit that this past Sunday, they got killed.
The NFL betting favorites they got hurt with the worst were the San Francisco 49ers, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints. Some of these teams were either on impressive streaks or had strong trends in their favor. For example, the Saints have now won and covered thirteen straight games in the Superdome with Sean Payton as head coach (remember, he was on suspension all last season).
As of right now, home favorites, which the public is especially fond of, have hit 57.5% of the time, which would give any PPH bettor a nice healthy profit, considering that the break-even point for the 11-to-10 bettor is 52.38%.
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The opinion of many NFL oddsmakers and sportsbook handicapping experts is that the number posted on the favorites has to get somewhat higher than what normally be expected, if for no other reason that to drive some action for underdogs. Public perception is an important component of the bookmaking process, and sometimes you have to make it an unattractive proposition to bet the favorite.
When you take a look at the opponents the aforementioned teams beat on Sunday, you're looking at dysfunctional situations like:
* Jacksonville Jaguars - with backup QB Chad Henne
* Minnesota Vikings - with third quarterback change in three weeks
* Buffalo Bills - with a third-string QB (Thad Lewis)
* Miami Dolphins - with a QB (Ryan Tannehill) who was sacked 26 times
In other words, people look at a weak quarterback situation and they act. Is it any coincidence that the winning favorites in those games were people like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Colin Kaepernick. That's the "Elite 4" of the NFL, along with another guy who got his team to the Super Bowl. Just some food for the thoughts of Price Per Head bettors.
If the Boston Red Sox win the World Series, whether it is in Game 6 or Gam e7, who should be the MVP? Should it be Jon Lester, who went head-to-head with St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright and pitched two beautiful games? Or should it be David Ortiz, who through Game 5 had a .733 average in 15 at bats, with a pair of homers and six RBI. That's ELEVEN hits in five games. And for your sabermaticians out there who are also baseball bettors, his OPS (on base percentage plus slugging) is off the charts, at 2.017. In three World Series, Ortiz is now hitting .465.
Ortiz has 373 lifetime homers and a .292 career average. With all of these post-season heroics, is he a viable candidate for the Hall of Fame?
As for the Game 6 odds at WagerHome.com, the Red Sox, back at Fenway, are the -122 favorites, with the Cardinals and Michael Wacha getting +102 on the takeback.
So what happens? Do the Red Sox wrap things up on Wednesday? Join our community to talk about it:
