SMU vs. Houston Betting Line – Thursday Night College Football

Carrie Stroup here with your SMU vs. Houston betting line for this Thursday Night Football game.  Sportsbook.ag Line: Houston -25; Total: 74.5

SMU MUSTANGS (1-4) at HOUSTON COUGARS (4-0)

Houston tries to remain unbeaten on Thursday night when it hosts heavy underdog SMU in a matchup of Texas teams in the American Athletic Conference.

The Mustangs started the season 3-0 ATS (1-2 SU), but have allowed 97 points during a two-game ATS skid to 13-point underdog James Madison and 5.5-point road favorite East Carolina. The Cougars have rolled up three straight ATS victories, prevailing at 13-point favorite Louisville before big wins over Texas State (59-14) and at Tulsa last week (38-24).

These teams are meeting for the 11th consecutive year with Houston holding a commanding 8-2 SU (6-4 ATS) advantage over SMU in this series since 2005. The past six meetings have all been blowouts with the Mustangs winning by 30 in 2012 and the Cougars five victories coming by 23, 25, 30, 34 and 26 points last year (35-9). The 2014 matchup was actually a 9-7 SMU lead at halftime before Houston closed the game with 28 unanswered points.

Most of Thursday's betting trends lean towards the Cougars, such as their 8-1 ATS record versus good offenses (31+ PPG) in the past three seasons and home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points with an incredible offense (6.4+ yards per play) going 34-7 ATS in the past 10 seasons after 6.75+ yards per play in two straight games. But the Mustangs are 20-9 ATS versus good rushing defenses (120 or less YPG allowed) since 1992, including 3-0 ATS in the past three seasons.

Injuries shouldn't be a big factor here, but SMU did lose DB Rodney Clemons to a season-ending knee injury last week while CB Horace Richardson (undisclosed) is questionable for Thursday. Houston's only new injury is WR Linell Bonner, whose bad hamstring has him listed as questionable for this matchup.

SMU's offense has been pretty effective this season with 31.4 PPG on 429 total YPG. A strong 23.4 first downs per game has kept the time of possession well over 30 minutes per game (32:39). Junior QB Matt Davis has thrown for 1,182 yards (8.1 YPA) on 60% completions, 8 TD and 2 INT, including four straight games without throwing a pick. But Davis did very little versus Houston last year, as nearly half his 145 yards (13-of-27, 5.4 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT) came on a 67-yard touchdown pass.

However, Davis didn't have freshman WR Courtland Sutton that game, which could make a huge difference on Thursday. The 6-foot-4 Sutton has been unbelievable with 21 catches for 450 yards (21.4 avg) and 5 TD, and no other Mustangs receiver has more than 13 catches, 163 yards and 2 TD.

The rushing attack has also been strong with 185 YPG on 4.0 YPC. Davis is the club's leading rusher with 380 yards (4.3 YPC) and 6 TD, while freshman RB Xavier Jones has contributed 279 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) and four touchdowns.

The SMU defense has been dreadful though, allowing 44.4 PPG and 593 total YPG, including 51.0 PPG on 668 total YPG in the past three contests. The run-stop unit has been gashed for 285 YPG on 6.6 YPC and the passing defense has also been burned for 309 YPG on 60% completions and 10.0 YPA. One area the defense has flourished is turnovers, as it has 11 takeaways this year, including five over the past two weeks. Forcing miscues will be a big factor in determining whether or not this game stays close, because the last time SMU won in this series in 2012, it forced nine turnovers. However, this year's Cougars team has just three giveaways over four games.

Houston's offense has been potent all season with 45.7 PPG on 604 total YPG, including 55.5 PPG and 658 total YPG in two home games. The team has both rushed for more than 225 yards and thrown for more than 225 yards in all four contests.

Junior QB Greg Ward Jr. has completed 70% of his passes for 1,058 yards (8.9 YPA), 8 TD and only 1 INT. Although he didn't throw a touchdown last week at Tulsa, he did run for three scores as part of his 182 rushing yards (9.1 YPC). He now leads the Cougars with 472 rushing yards (7.3 YPC) and seven touchdowns. While Ward didn't throw very effectively at SMU last year (17-of-28, 144 yds, 5.1 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT), he did his damage on the ground with 93 yards on 14 carries (6.6 YPC) and three touchdowns.

Senior RB Kenneth Farrow (385 rush yds, 5.2 YPC, 2 TD) was Houston's leading rusher in that win in Dallas with 110 yards on 18 carries (6.1 YPC) and 2 TD. The other star for this Cougars offense is junior WR Demarcus Ayers, who has 32 receptions for 377 yards and 3 TD. Ayers has been much more potent in two home games (247 rec yds) than in two road tilts (130 rec yds) this year.

The Houston defense has been solid this season in limiting opponents to 23.2 PPG and 398 total YPG, including 82 rushing YPG on a mere 2.4 YPC. Opponents have chosen to take the air much more though, gaining 316 YPG on 60% completions and 7.6 YPA. The unit has been able to keep opponents' scores low by forcing 11 turnovers, including 10 in the past three games. With SMU already having three games with 2+ giveaways, the Cougars will be going after the football on Thursday.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter