MSU vs. Western Michigan Betting Odds – Week 1 College Football
Carrie Stroup here with your MSU vs. Western Michigan betting odds for Week 1 of the 2015 College Football season.
Sportsbook.ag Line: Michigan State -17.5, Total: 57.5
No. 5 Michigan State could have a tricky season opener on Friday when it visits Western Michigan.
The Spartans are coming off their fourth season of double-digit wins this decade, going 11-2 SU (9-4 ATS) that included five straight road wins (4-1 ATS) after falling at Oregon early in the year. They have high hopes for a conference championship with star QB Connor Cook back under center for his senior season. The Broncos, meanwhile, return 16 starters to a team that went 8-5 SU (10-3 ATS) last year, which was quite an improvement from a 1-11 mark in 2013.
Western Michigan will once again see the offense revolve around RB Jarvion Franklin who rushed for more than 1,500 yards with 24 touchdowns last year. This will be one of the biggest home games in the history of the program, and the Broncos played very well at Waldo Stadium last season, going 4-1 ATS and outscoring opponents by 17.0 PPG.
These teams last met in the 2013 season opener in East Lansing, when the 27.5-point-favorite Michigan State struggled to move the football in a 26-13 win. WMU turned the ball over four times in that defeat and rushed for a woeful 11 yards on 27 carries.
The Spartans benefit from the betting trend that good passing teams (8+ YPA) with an experienced QB starter are 32-9 ATS (78%) when favored between 10.5 and 21 points in the first two weeks of the season. The Broncos were potent on turf last season, going 8-2 ATS with 34.3 PPG and 453 total YPG in those 10 contests. There are no significant injuries for either team in this matchup.
Michigan State senior QB Connor Cook (3,214 pass yds, 24 TD, 8 INT) is outstanding, but the team’s top two skill players are gone in RB Jeremy Langford and WR Tony Lippett. Cook will spread the wealth within a deep receiving corps that includes senior WRs MacGarrett Kings Jr. (404 rec yds, 1 TD) and Aaron Burbridge (358 rec yds, 1 TD) and 6-foot-4, 250-pound junior TE Josiah Price (374 rec yds, 6 TD) as a reliable red-zone target.
MSU may opt to throw the ball more with an inexperienced running back group that mostly watched Langford help the team to 235 rushing YPG (19th in nation) last season. The Spartans are always outstanding on defense, and this year is no exception.
New co-DCs Harlan Barnett (promoted from DB coach) and Mike Tressel (promoted from LB coach) have seven starters returning to a unit that allowed a nation-low 89 rushing YPG last year on 3.2 yards per carry (8th in FBS). DE Shilique Calhoun (8 sacks, 12.5 TFL) and LB Ed Davis (7 sacks, 12 TFL) both get in opponents' backfields with regularity. The secondary departed with All-Americans CB Trae Waynes and S Kurtis Drummond leaving, but FS RJ Williamson (3 INT, 2 TD, 59 tackles) and CB Darian Hicks (2 INT) are capable leaders in the back four.
Because RB Jarvion Franklin (1,551 rush yds, 5.1 YPC, 24 TD) is so explosive, he takes the pressure off junior QB Zach Terrell (3,443 pass yds, 9.4 YPA, 26 TD, 10 INT). The Broncos finished third in the nation in passing yards per attempt last year (9.3) and fifth in completion pct. (68%), leading to a solid 267 passing YPG (34th in FBS).
Two of the MAC's best receivers are back to improve these numbers even more in explosive WR Corey Davis (78 rec, 1,408 yds, 15 TD) and chain-moving WR Daniel Braverman (86 rec, 997 yds, 6 TD).
Western Michigan's defense is also strong, with seven starters back on a unit that allowed 371 total YPG (3rd in MAC) and really buckled down in the red zone (74%, 12th in FBS). LB Grant DePalma (102 tackles, 8 TFL) flies all over the field to make hits, while DE Jarrell McKinney (4 sacks, 43 tackles, 7 TFL) and DT Cleveland Smith (5.5 sacks, 8 TFL) pressure the quarterback. The secondary also played well last season (218 passing YPG, 2nd in MAC), but star CB Donald Celiscar and his four interceptions will be missed. However, CB Ronald Zamort (4 INT, 17 PBU) is also a playmaker, and S Rontavious Atkins (64 tackles, 9 PD) knows how to hit.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
