Your observations are all very good. Miami should win handidly, but you never know with double digit point spreads. They always allow for last second "chump" points and the heavy favorite wins by plenty but doesnt cover the line. Still, if you must bet this one, take Miami and maybe put them in a teaser or at least buy the 1/2 down to -9.5. I won't bet on the game but will be at the game on the 50 yd line!!!
Miami Oakland