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National League Baseball Betting October 6, 2011

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National League Baseball Betting

Carrie Stroup here with your baseball betting preview for October 6, 2011, which includes the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Flyers.  Find all odds here.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS at MILWAUKEE BREWERS (Series tied 2-2)

Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Milwaukee -146, Arizona +136 & 7.5 under -120

The Brewers return to Milwaukee Friday night to host Arizona for Game 5 with a trip to the NLCS on the line.

Winning two home games then dropping two road games was no surprise for Milwaukee, who own baseball’s best home record (59-24), but have the worst road mark among playoff teams (39-44). The pitching matchup will be a rematch from Game 1, when Milwaukee’s Yovani Gallardo threw eight innings of one-run ball, allowing five base runners and striking out nine in a 4-1 Brewers win. While the Brew Crew had their momentum halted in Arizona, Milwaukee is 14-3 at home with Gallardo on the mound this year, and the righty is a perfect 6-0 with a 1.18 ERA over six career starts against Arizona.

D-backs starter Ian Kennedy (21-5, 2.95 ERA) has been very good on the road this year, going 10-3 with a 3.33 ERA while Arizona won 12 of those 16 outings. He had finished the regular season strong, going 13-1 with a 2.26 ERA in his final 15 starts, 14 of them Arizona wins.

But Kennedy hasn’t been particularly good against elite competition. In six starts against 2011 playoff teams, he’s 3-3 with a 4.93 ERA. The Brewers had 11 batters reach in 6.2 innings against him in Game 1, and Prince Fielder’s two-run home run chased him in the seventh inning. In 12 career at-bats against Kennedy, Fielder now has two home runs and a double. Ryan Braun, who’s 7-for-15 with four extra base hits in the NLDS, is 5-for-10 career against Kennedy.

Gallardo (18-10, 3.43 ERA) has been on fire of late, going 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA over his past four starts (all Brewers wins) while striking out 45 in 28.1 innings. He’s allowed four runs (one earned) over 15 career postseason innings.

He’ll be trying to slow down a Diamondbacks offense that had 18 runs, 24 hits and five home runs in Games 3 and 4 combined. One of the Arizona stars of the NLDS, Chris Young (6-for-14, 3 HR in the series), has just two singles in 16 career at-bats against Gallardo. Slugging rookie Paul Goldschmidt (5-for-11, 2 HR) did not play in Game 1 and has never faced Gallardo.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Series tied 2-2)

Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Philadelphia -180, St. Louis +170 & 6.5 over -120

They’re one game away from elimination, but the Phillies are still in a good place when they host St. Louis for Game 5 on Friday. In Philadelphia, with Roy Halladay on the mound, is a fine place to be.

Halladay’s final line from Game 1 wasn’t eye-popping (8 innings, 3 runs), but after giving up a first-inning, three-run homer to Lance Berkman, he went on to allow just one base runner over 7.2 innings of shutout ball. He retired the last 21 batters he faced. Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter finished the regular season strong but, pitching on three-days rest in Game 2, allowed four runs over just three innings. The Cardinals came back to steal Game 2 in Philly, and the money line makes St. Louis a tempting pick.

After an uncharacteristically up-and-down year, Carpenter (11-9, 3.56 ERA) came on strong in September. He went 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA over his last five regular-season starts. That included eight shutout innings in a win at Philadelphia on September 18, but Philly did not have Ryan Howard in the lineup for that game and still had nine batters reach base.

In Game 2, Carpenter gave up five hits and walked three in three innings before being lifted for a pinch-hitter. Manager Tony La Russa complained that Carpenter was getting squeezed by home plate umpire Jerry Meals. Regardless, the outing made it two disappointing playoff starts in a row for Carpenter. In Game 1 of the 2009 NLDS, he allowed four runs and 14 base runners over five innings in a loss to the Dodgers. In six career postseason road starts, Carpenter has a 5.29 ERA.

Halladay (20-6, 2.38 ERA) is 3-1 with a 2.37 ERA career against St. Louis. The Cardinals beat him on September 19 in Philadelphia, scoring four runs in eight innings as Halladay surprisingly walked four batters in a game for the first time since June 2008. It was a rare home loss for the Phils with Halladay on the mound, as they’re 13-3 in his Citizens Bank Park starts this year.

The Cards are getting some good news on the injury front with Matt Holliday back in the lineup. After singling in a pinch-hitting appearance in Game 3, Holliday went 1-for-3 with a HBP and two runs in the Game 4 victory. Berkman is 3-for-8 with two home runs and two walks in his career against Halladay. However, Albert Pujols is only 2-for-13 (with a double and two walks) against the reigning Cy Young Award winner.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter

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