Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks Line – April 1
Carrie Stroup here with your Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks line for April 1. Be sure to claim your FREE $100 BET from Sportsbook.com here.
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Arizona -107 & 8.5 over -115
A new-look Diamondbacks squad will try to start 2013 off on the right foot when it hosts the Cardinals on Monday night.
Despite losing Albert Pujols before last season began, St. Louis still managed to win 88 games before falling to the Giants in seven games in the NLCS. That marked the ninth playoff season for the Cardinals in the past 13 years. The Diamondbacks have made only two playoff appearances since 2003, finishing 81-81 last year. While St. Louis has just about the same roster as last season, Arizona has a new left side of the infield with 3B Martin Prado and SS Cliff Pennington, and with injuries to new OF Cody Ross (calf) and returning OF Adam Eaton (elbow), a pair of 25-year-old outfielders, A.J. Pollock and Gerardo Parra will be starting on Monday. Runs may be hard to come by though, as the pitching matchup features Cards ace Adam Wainwright against D-backs front-line starter Ian Kennedy. St. Louis dominated the season series in 2012, going 5-1 against Arizona, including a three-game sweep at Chase Field.
St. Louis will be missing some key players in 3B David Freese (back), SS Rafael Furcal (elbow) and closer RP Jason Motte (elbow). Despite not having Pujols last season, this team was still among the elite offenses, especially in the weaker-hitting National League. The Cards led the majors in getting on base (.338 OBP), while finishing fourth in hitting (.271 BA), fifth in scoring (765 runs) and ninth in slugging (.421 SLG). Although they were a poor road bet (42-47, -9.8 units), they were a winning +2.0 Units (17-18) in the underdog role last year.
Adam Wainwright understandably struggled a bit last year after missing the entire 2011 season due to Tommy John surgery. He finished 14-13 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, numbers considerably worse than his 20-11, 2.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP from 2010. Including playoffs, the Cardinals were just 18-17 in Wainwright's starts, going 7-9 on the road. But Wainwright was much more effective after the All-Star Break (3.28 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) after struggling with his surgically-repaired throwing elbow in the first three months of the season (4.56 ERA, 1.35 WHIP). Wainwright has always pitched well in his career versus the Diamondbacks, going 5-2 with a 2.27 ERA in seven starts against them. In four appearances at Chase Field (two starts, two relief), he is 1-1 with a 2.03 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and .188 opponents' BA. The only non-injured Arizona players he's faced at least 10 times in his career have both hit him well though, with C Miguel Montero going 4-for-11 with a homer and two walks, and Prado going 3-for-10 with a walk.
Arizona was average-to-good in all the major offensive categories in 2012, finishing eighth in runs (734), seventh in on-base percentage (.328), 10th in slugging (.418) and 13th in batting average (.259). The Diamondbacks didn't play well at home last season, going 41-40 (-13.9 Units), and were also a losing wager as the favorite (-13.1 Units, 53-48), and in night games (-11.3 Units, 57-58).
Ian Kennedy's numbers dropped in a big way in 2012. After going 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 2011, Kennedy fell to 15-12, 4.02 ERA, 1.30 WHIP last season. The team still managed a winning record (18-15) with Kennedy on the mound though, including 9-6 (60%) at Chase Field. Kennedy's peripherals weren't much worse than 2011, as his walk rate jumped slightly from 2.2 to 2.4 BB's/9 and his strikeout rate actually increased from 8.0 to 8.1 K's/9. But one team that has given him a lot of trouble in the past two seasons has been these Cardinals. In four starts against them, Kennedy is 1-3 with an 8.59 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, allowing St. Louis to post a .281 BA, .363 OBP and robust .618 slugging percentage. The two players that have hit Kennedy particularly well are outfielders Carlos Beltran (1.141 OPS, 2 HR, 6 RBI in 23 PA) and Matt Holliday (1.420 OPS in 11 PA).
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
