Why The Packers Might Not Cover The Spread Against The 49ers

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:

The Green Bay Packers host the San Francisco 49ers Saturday in a Divisional Playoffs game with the line set at Packers -6.  That spread may be too much considering how well San Francisco has played of late.  Here are some reasons why Green Bay might not cover the 5-point spread.


Why The Packers Might Not Cover The Spread Against San Francisco Sunday

  • 49ers are 8-0 Against The Spread in their last 8 games in January.
  • 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Divisional Playoffs games.
  • 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
  • 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
  • 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
  • San Francisco has been delivering a slight profit for sports bettors of late, going 10-8 Against The Spread.

Some Final Thoughts

To be clear, there aren't a whole lot of trends that go against Green Bay.  In fact, there are plenty of trends that favor the Packers in a bigger way than they do the 49ers.

Still be mindful that the spread is too much here.  Sagarin has Green Bay a few decimal points better than the 49ers, which translates into a line of -2 and -3 if we want to be generous.

The Packers have not lost at home this season and they have been quite profitable for the gamblers, going 12-5 Against The Spread. But while the 49ers 10-8 ATS record might not seem all that impressive, they are 8-2 Against The Spread in their last ten games.  They started the season 2-6 ATS.

Green Bay does have the edge in points per game, not so much in yards gained or allowed.

The Packers have a weak run defense.  In fact, Green Bay has struggled to stop the run this season, ranking 30th by allowing 4.7 yards per rush.

Back when the 49ers were attempting to find their way back in September, the Packers managed a 2-point win in San Francisco as  +3.5 dog.  Based on these numbers, on a neutral field Green Bay would still have been a +1/+1.5 dog. The 49ers have improved since that time.  And over the last three seasons, the 49ers and Packers have split wins and losses with San Francisco winning in a more dominating fashion.

In the end though, forget the cover.  Green Bay is 29-5-1 Straight Up at home over the past four seasons and it's going to be under 10 degrees during game time.  Do go with Green Bay Packers -240 on the moneyline.

A smaller play on San Francisco 49ers +6 is something that could be considered, but the weather really makes this one hard to pull the trigger.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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