Tony Parker has Overtaken Tim Duncan as Favorite to Win MVP

According to the majority of Superbook.com members, it appears as if the fat lady is tuning up her vocal chords in Cleveland as we speak, while the best bet may very well be on Tony Parker beating out Tim Duncan for series MVP.

This is Carrie Stroup reporting for Sports911.com.

With San Antonio’s 3-0 lead to go along with three straight covers, it isn’t surprising that just under 70% of the early bettors are siding with San Antonio (-3.5) while about 60% are betting the San Antonio money line (-160). It’s hard to blame the public for backing San Antonio in tonight’s game; all they have done during the playoffs is run off a 14-4-1 ATS record including five straight covers and eight out of their last nine.

In order to avoid the sweep, it is crucial for Cleveland to get off to a fast start. In the first half of the first three games, Cleveland has not been able to muster up more than 38 points. Facing the league’s #1 defense has really stymied the Cavs and Lebron James. The Cavs are shooting just 40% from the field for the series while Lebron is averaging only 21 points per game. Although the Cavs have yet to win or more importantly cover during this series, you can’t discount the fact that the Cavs have covered three out of their last four at home. You also can’t ignore the fact that they managed to come from a 2-0 deficit in the Conference Finals thanks to the heroics of Lebron.

Since a championship savvy team like the Spurs are unlikely to lose for straight, I guess the next question is who will win the series MVP? By looking at the odds change at Superbook.com it appears as if Tony Parker has overtaken Tim Duncan as the favorite. When the Series started Duncan was the overwhelming favorite at 1-6 whereas Tony Parker had some decent value at 5-1. The bettors have been piling in on Parker after averaging 24.7 ppg in the first three games. Duncan’s numbers aren’t too shabby either considering he is averaging about 20 points and almost 10 boards a game. At an 8-5 payout, there is definitely some good value considering he is almost averaging a double/double for the series. Considering there is still at least one game left and his numbers aren’t too far off of Parker’s, it is surprising that these numbers have changed so much.

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Carrie Stroup, Sports911.com

Originally published June 14, 2007 7:04 pm ET