Ron Paul May Be Forced to Run as an Independent

Republican US Presidential candidate Ron Paul came closest to suggesting he may run as an Independent when responding to the question during a debate this past week.

"I want them to think I might," Paul said, presumably referring to his fellow Republican candidates or maybe even the press.

But while Paul seems sincere in suggesting he has no intention of running on anything but the Republican ticket, he may be forced to do otherwise should the long time Texas Congressman wish to compete in a "fair and balanced" election process.

That's because the media in Florida has paid virtually zero attention to Ron Paul, while providing plenty of media attention to Rudy Giuliani.  The former Mayor has placed all his eggs in a basket - so to speak - with Florida, yet trails by a wide margin in the latest polls.  Paul has managed to beat Giuliani in nearly every state primary and caucus thus far, including his huge second place finish in Nevada.  His supporters raised yet another $2 million last Monday. 

But it's the state of Louisiana that could provide the final straw.

While all the other Republicans have been battling to win delegates in Florida, the Ron Paul camp has been waging a "quiet" (in the press) yet "vocal" (among circles of organized supporters) battle in the state of Louisiana. 

On Saturday, the Paul camp filed a letter with the Louisiana Republican Party to contest the credentials of delegates to the state convention.

Under state party rules, campaigns have 72 hours from the end of the caucus to file such a contest. This contest was filed in response to multiple problems with the caucus process.

“The initial failure of the Louisiana GOP to properly determine who was and wasn’t eligible to vote threw this entire process into disarray,” said Ron Paul campaign manager Lew Moore. “However, voter eligibility was just one of many irregularities with the caucus process. We are filing this contest to ensure that we can challenge the results if it appears that delegates were improperly selected.”

The Louisiana State GOP changed the rules at the eleventh hour to allow other candidates to file more delegates, even though there were plenty of delegates to compose full slates in each congressional district. At the time of the original January 10 deadline, Ron Paul had the largest number of delegates pledged to him. The party then changed the rules to give other candidates until January 12 to file more delegates.

In addition, due to mistakes by the Louisiana GOP, hundreds of voters were forced to file provisional ballots, including nearly 500 that could change the outcome of the election. According to the LA GOP, caucus locations relied on a voter list from November 1, 2007 or perhaps earlier despite the fact that under the caucus rules, voters need only have registered Republican before November 30, 2007.

There were even instances at the caucuses where state-certified Ron Paul delegates appearing on the ballot were forced to file a provisional ballot despite the fact they were pre-approved as delegates.

Needless-to-say, this has his supporters nationwide up in arms. 

By Saturday evening, Gambling911.com's report on the Louisiana Caucus Debacle had become one of the most read articles over a 24-hour period in the website's 7 year history.

Ron Paul supporter, Darryl DeMaris, explained to Gambling911.com just how important it was to ensure victory in Louisiana via a "cleanly run caucus" while all the other candidates are focused on the "winner take all" state of Florida.

"I was on the ballot and understand the process here.  The big problem with the Caucus is that registered Republicans as of Nov. 30 were allowed to take part, but the LA GOP only had a list current as of Nov. 1st. Many Ron Paul supporters had not changed parties by that time, but had (done so) by the 30th deadline. Over 500 of the 10,000 voters were provisional.

"The provisional ballots are key and could swing up to 31 national delegates Ron Paul's way.   31 would put him in second or third nationwide at this point."

Paul is already believed to be in second place when it comes to money raised.  His campaign already has $3.5 mil in its coffers the first month of 2008 with a goal of $5 million more to be raised by February 5. 

Ron Paul has proven a popular figure in the online gambling community, bolstered by the fact that he has come out swinging against legislation that makes Internet poker illegal.  While the Poker Players Association has done little to promote the Paul campaign (a la education, since they claim not to endorse any political candidates), the Nevada gambling community proved just how important the issue is with his 2nd place finish there.

Paul would do better in Florida if not for the unfortunate reality that he is getting little press in the state.  The demographics are very similar to that of Nevada: Floridians love their gambling, their guns and the economy is in pretty serious disarray, brought on mostly by the mortgage crisis. 

The long time Congressman's recent actions suggest he is looking far beyond Super Tuesday as well.  His campaign recently appointed two new - and proven - leaders to head things up while actively recruiting 180,000 precinct leaders, one for every precinct in the country. 

So even though Ron Paul has vehemently insisted he wants to run only as a Republican - pointing out that he's been elected several terms as a Republican Congressman already - he may end up doing so as an Independent Republican.  After all, it's the unconventional nature of Paul's campaign and "thinking outside the box" that has fueled its success up to this point. 

Get all the latest Ron Paul and Political Betting Updates From Gambling911.com Here

----

Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher CCostigan@CostiganMedia.com

Originally published January 26, 2008 10:58 pm EST