President
Ron Paul
- Could He Really Win?
A
two part article
on how current
events outside
the political process
could elect Ron
Paul as President
followed by a hypothetical scenario
for his first four
year term.
First
they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight
you, then you win. - Mohandas
Gandhi
What if at noon
on January 20, 2009 Ron Paul is sworn in as the 44th President
of the United States? First, how could Ron Paul actually
win the GOP nomination? Second, could he beat Hillary Clinton
and win the Presidency? Finally, what could a Ron Paul Administration
accomplish with the powerful special interests allied against
him and his agenda controlling the leadership of the Republican
and Democrat parties?
Could Paul Win
the GOP Nomination? - Yes, Ron Paul is an online
favorite and he has at least achieved a noteworthy footnote
status in American political history with the amazing internet
fundraising success by his supporters working on their own
outside his campaign or control. Still, his great momentum
in the polls moving up from less than 1% to the high single
digits realistically can not translate into victory in the
front-loaded 2008 primary schedule. There simply is not
enough time for the support from internet savvy Ron Paul
advocates to broaden across the voting public and mature
into enough primary victories for Paul to become the Republican
nominee for President. Second, even if this was possible
he would have another series of difficult obstacles to overcome
in running against Hillary Clinton, the probable Democrat
nominee.
Paradigm Shifts
In the American Electorate "Almost' Never Happen Over
Night! - There is little chance his campaign or supporters
alone can convince a majority of the American electorate
to vote for Ron Paul and his platform in the time available.
The Ron Paul campaign is an educational effort that caught
on with a sizable minority of young people and others who
don't trust big government, the Neocon foreign policy, conventional
politics or the direction our nation is heading. As an educational
effort, it has already generated the largest groundswell
of popular support since populist Ross Perot, anti-war Eugene
McCarthy in 1968 and conservative Barry Goldwater in 1964. But
history shows us that the majority of American voters never
turn on a dime and it takes years for education and reality
to dawn on the public. But all is not lost for the Ron Paul
For President campaign and outside events could well propel
him into the White House.
How Economic & Foreign
Policy Events Outside the Political Process Could Still
Give Ron Paul Victory as the GOP Nominee and President of
the United States - Think back to your history. If
you remember, a majority of Americans did not want to get
involved in World War Two but the sneak Japanese attack
on Pearl Harbor changed public opinion over night in favor
of war. Prior to the War Between the States, the citizens
of North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas and Maryland
did not support Southern secession but Lincoln's call for
troops, war and outright invasion of the already independent
Confederate states caused a shift in public opinion in the
upper Southern states in favor of secession and the rest
is history. The bottom line is perilous outside events can
move public opinion and shift voter sentiment far more than
any political campaign or candidate especially when most
voters assume all politicians are lying anyway.
Consider Any
of These Possible Scenarios:
A Bush Strike
Against Iran & Resulting Oil Shock To the World Economy
- The assumed Iran response would likely push oil to
$150 a barrel and gas over $5.00 a gallon and the voting
public will wake up to at least the economic disaster of
the Bush foreign policy. Hillary, currently the leading
Democrat candidate for president will also be blamed as
she supports the Bush/Neocon plans against Iran. This
action could win Ron Paul the GOP nomination and the general
election if it takes place before or early in the primary
season.
A Collapse of
Nuclear Armed Pakistan & the Musharraf Dictatorship
- Musharraf is correctly seen as an American puppet
in the Middle East and around the world and this is why
he has been forced to maintain control by military means.
If the situation does happen and Pakistan descends into
chaos it will only benefit the Islamic extremists. Again,
if we lose Pakistan, Musharraf and their nuclear weapons
as we have previously lost bin Laden, the benefits of a
return to the non-intervention foreign echoed by George
Washington and Ron Paul could sweep the primaries and general
election.
Turkish
Invasion of Kurdish Iraq & Control of Oil Reserves -
Most
voters will agree that America invaded Iraq to protect and
control the oil reserves as well as defend the few friendly
nations still allied with the United States in the region.
Turkey has little oil and is very concerned about their
Kurdish problem and the Kurds long term goal is an independent
nation-state. Turkey is now threatening to attack the Kurdish
guerrillas operating out of Kurd controlled Iraq. If Turkey
is willing to invade and accept the diplomatic consequences,
they probably will end up driving to and controlling the
oil rich city Kerkuk and half the oil reserves of Iraq.
Again, this failure of Neocon foreign policy will benefit
the candidacy of Ron Paul.
The
Federal Reserve Easy Money Credit Crisis -
The
American public is already suffering from the
subprime
mortgage and credit debacle,
a
housing downturn getting more serious by the day and now a
recession appears to be on the horizon. Many knowledgeable
voters will correctly blame the earlier Federal Reserve easy
money policy designed to make billions for the banking and
financial services industry as the culprit with average Americans
now paying the ultimate price for the Fed actions. Only Ron
Paul has called for the abolishment of the both the hated
Federal Reserve System and the Internal Revenue Service. I'm
betting the coming economic crisis may get worse quickly and
if the Ron Paul campaign and others in the freedom movement
can publicize and educate the voters about the true manner
of the fraud, scam and plague of the Federal Reserve System
on the American people, then the campaign will greatly benefit
from the looming economic crisis.
A
Possible American Dollar Collapse -
The
falling dollar has been in the news for months but few Americans
realize how a weak dollar and the end of it's status as
the world's only reserve currency could impact their standard
of living and the future of the American economy. Foreign
investors, central banks and investment managers are all
playing chicken trying to slowly reduce their positions
in dollar denominated assets without setting off a worldwide
dollar panic. It will happen sooner or later as our aging
demographics and current government debt load guarantee
the dollar is dying as a stable currency and store of value.
The only question is will the dollar death be long and lingering
or end in a death rattle of financial panic as everyone
tries to exit the dollar door at the same time. Ron Paul
has spent is career calling for a return to the gold standard
for the dollar and an end to the Federal Reserve creation
of paper money. If the dollar downtrend turns into a panic,
who else but Ron Paul has the real solution to the problem.
Should
Any of the Above Crises Happen Soon, Ron Paul Could Become
Our Next President -
The
odds are they won't happen in time but if any do occur,
Ron Paul could win the GOP nomination and be elected President
in November 2008.
Get
ready for Part 2, "The First Four Years of the Ron
Paul Administration" coming soon! The first paragraph
is below:
"I do solemnly swear
that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United
States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend
the Constitution of the United States." At the mention of
the Constitution, the crowd went wild shouting "Ron Paul, Ron
Paul, Ron Paul, Ron Paul..." After the crowd quieted down,
the
bands played Hail to the Chief, followed by a 21-gun salute
from howitzers. Then President Ron Paul began his inaugural address...
Ron Holland is
a retired Asheville, NC, investment consultant, financial
and political writer, who was head of a national investment
firm. He now markets mountain real estate at a ski resort. He
is author of the new online book, "The Swiss Preserve
Solution" that discusses many of the economic and foreign
policy threats
outlines above
online at:
http://www.swissconfederationinstitute.org/swisspreserve1.htm
Ron Paul supporters,
be sure to vote in the new Free Market Hall of Fame “Issues,
Programs & Politics Survey“ at
http://www.freedomfest.com/halloffame Make
sure you complete question #4 (If Ron Paul is not on the GOP
ticket as President or Vice President, will you vote Republican,
vote Democrat, consider a third party or stay at home in the
general election.) Ron Paul supporters need to let both parties
know they will not be taken for granted in the 2008 elections.
by Ronald
Holland
