Ron Paul the Second Biggest Winner in Michigan?

Mitt Romney won the Michigan primary handily.  So who were the other winners in Michigan?  Can you say Ron Paul? 

His 6% was in many ways bigger than the 10% he received in Iowa.  It's not just the percentage, but the vote count - well over 50,000 came out to support Ron Paul.  Michigan is the 8th most populated state in the US. 

But the real stunner was how Paul managed to receive double the number of votes Giuliani got.

Camp Giuliani will say they didn't campaign in Michigan.  Ron Paul did little campaigning there either.

Worse still, Paul stomped over Fred Thompson, who Fox News claimed won last week's South Carolina Republican debate. 

The significance here is that there is no true frontrunner in the Republican party while Ron Paul is performing better than two previous frontrunners.  Giuliani had been the top choice to get the GOP nomination long before the primaries started.  Fred Thompson was instilled as the favorite to win the nomination almost immediately following his entry into the race, but that positive placement quickly dissipated.  Then there is Mike Huckabee, who after winning Iowa big, has lost plenty of momentum. 

There is a bigger issue here, that being money.  And aside from Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, few of the other candidates have much.  Granted, Giuliani has been saving his for states like Florida and New York.  But as Gambling911.com pointed out earlier, Giuliani runs the risk of alienating a good chunk of the US population come Election Day. 

On Tuesday, Ron Paul supporters once again seemed down about the 6%.  But in reality, this was a huge showing for Ron Paul.  He managed to get 6% in a state that was dominated by Romney and McCain.  In fact, when all was said and done, Paul had gotten the same number of votes as Thompson and Giuliani put together. 

Paul's 6% poll showing in Nevada was not nearly as impressive since those polls had Giuliani and Thompson ahead and a much more level playing field.  He received 7% of the vote out of Wayne County, which is home to Detroit.  He received 4% of the vote in Kent County, home of Michigan's second biggest cities - Grand Rapids.  Paul got 7% of the vote in Macomb County (3rd largest city of Warren.  He received nearly 10% in Genesee County, which is home to Flint.  Shiawassee County (home of Lansing) provided Paul with 7.5% of the overall vote.

But a Paul spokeswoman said the polls don't reflect their candidate's support in the state.

"The thing about Dr. Paul's support is it's from a really broad spectrum," said Jennifer Terhune, Nevada communications coordinator for the Paul campaign. "So we have people from all different parties who are supporting him. A lot of Ron Paul's support is from new Republicans, people who have joined the Republican party just to vote for Ron Paul. There's ... a lot of young people and people that don't have land line phones. They only have cell phones. So I really don't think the polls are very reflective of Dr. Paul's support."

Paul's numbers could increase dramatically if the campaign were to focus more on the issue of online poker and freedom to bet over the Internet.  Las Vegas casinos have been itching to get into the lucrative online gambling sector but can't due to recently past prohibition that Paul refused to vote for.  Nevada also has the largest concentration of gamblers in the United States. 

Political watchers said the Nevada caucus could be a more accurate test of the Republican race.

"You don't have a dominant voting block that can sway the election, the way the Christians did for Huckabee in Iowa and the way the Independents did for McCain in New Hampshire," Herzik said. "I can make an argument that Nevada kind of shows you where the Republican base is at. It's a good test for where the race is going."

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Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher CCostigan@CostiganMedia.com

Originally published January 15, 2008 11:53 pm EST