|
While the media and Fox News "focus group" didn't think too highly of Republican US Presidential candidate Ron Paul, the response by the audience during Fox's South Carolina debate suggested otherwise. He received more applause than any other candidate bar none....not to mention zero boos. And give Fox News some credit. The network asked its audience to text in who they felt won the debate and they honestly reported Ron Paul's huge lead in the voting. We're sure if they really wanted to, they could have made Fred Thompson the winner. And even the focus group was asked if Paul should have been allowed to attend. Overwhelmingly, the group who said he was the worst said he belonged there. Go figure! Fox News received quite a bit of flack for excluding Paul in their last Republican debate despite winning 10% in Iowa and performing better than Rudy Giuliani in that state. Ron Paul knocked them dead in this debate. He did not miss a beat (even the "I can't hear you, you need to speak up" to the moderator attacking him was pretty potent) and he's going to get votes after this one. It was by far his best performance, and one of the best performances of anyone in any debate. People who do not necessarily support Ron Paul were wowed by him. The knockout punch came when Paul was asked - laughingly - by one of the moderators if he really thought he could be elected, Paul lashed back that he should be embraced by conservatives and suggested he was one of the most representative of the Republican party. Paul was presently listed with 25/1 odds to win the Michigan primary, ahead of Fred Thompson's 50/1 odds. He was listed as the biggest underdog (also 25/1 odds) to win South Carolina. (odds courtesy of BetUS.com) Now make no mistake about it, Fred Thompson performed well Thursday night. Andrew Sullivan of the Atlantic.com points out: "He came out swinging against Huckabee in ways that frankly surprised me. Funny at times, acerbic at others, he seemed much more comfortable as a campaigner." So the two candidates with the longest odds to win the next two Republican primaries easily out performed the others Thursday. But the good news for John McCain is that he came across sincere as always, doing nothing to hurt his chances of winning in both Michigan, where he is favored to win, and South Carolina, where the oddsmakers have him closing in a bit on Huckabee. McCain had +150 odds while Huckabee had -200.
Both Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams and I agreed that the prediction markets (which the economics professor pointed out have almost always been accurate) have Senator John McCain winning the Republican nomination and Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination. Williams pointed out that the 2004 prediction markets already had Clinton going up against McCain. Oddsmakers (and gamblers) at Sportsbook.com never really gave up on McCain, who has mostly maintained 5/1 odds of becoming the next US President. His odds got a bit longer for a very brief time. Much of the early money was in fact on McCain on the Republican side prior to the huge surge of Ron Paul supporters that drove his odds to a peak of 6/1 at one point. Hillary Clinton has remained the favorite to become the next US President even during the hours leading up to New Hampshire where she was supposed to have lost to Barack Obama by double digits. At press time, Hillary Clinton was listed with 1.5/1 odds of becoming the next US President compared to Barack Obama at 2/1 and John McCain at 3.5/1 odds (his best yet). As we get closer to the Elections and more people are placing wagers, these odds should become more accurate. ---- Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher CCostigan@CostiganMedia.com Originally published January 11, 2008 11:41 pm EST
|
The
Ron Paul Knockout in
South Carolina