Who Will Get Ron Paul's 8 to 10 Percent Vote?

So who will get Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul's 8 to 10 percent vote per state assuming he doesn't get the Republican nomination?  Probably Hillary Clinton, assuming she gets the Democratic nomination.  And that has to scare a few Republicans.  That number can increase if supporters were to mobilize the online poker community in each state.

Paul supporters are pretty hard core.  They may not like Hillary but if they see their candidate being mistreated by the Republican party and those media outlets who cater to that party, odds are those 8 to 10 percentage points will be going towards Ms. Clinton. 

Ron Paul is the only Republican candidate to have voted against the Iraq war.

Ron Paul is the only Republican candidate who will not seek to lead the U.S. into a military confrontation with Iran, something also that Democrats Obama, Clinton and Edwards have all vowed to keep "on the table."

The Texas Congressman has vowed to keep his campaign going through Super Tuesday.  But after that, it's anybody's guess.  Paul says he has no intention of running as an independent.  Presently, he listed as a 30/1 long shot to become the next President of the United States (see Sportsbook.com here).  Hillary Clinton is at 1.5/1 odds; Obama is at 2/1 odds; John McCain is at 3.5/1 odds. 

A Michael Bloomberg run is also very likely come March and gamblers believe he stands a better shot than all the Republicans to win the nomination except for John McCain. 

Heading into the 2008 election, things are beginning to look a lot like 1992 (and not just because we're in Iraq again), James Montgomery of MTV News writes.   He refers to Texas billionaire H. Ross Perot getting 19% of the vote on Election Day. 

Talk of change, bipartisanship and unity has crossed the lips of both Democratic and Republican front-runners, and the presidential hopefuls seem to believe that Washington is an irrevocably broken machine in need of a firm shakeup (even, of course, those candidates who are part of that machine). There's also been the rise of so-called "electronic town halls" — forums with candidates sponsored by Facebook, YouTube and MTV/MySpace — that Perot spoke of during his '92 bid for the White House.

Polls show his appeal is limited, according to Brendan Nyhan.  In addition, as Matthew Yglesias notes, as a Jewish ex-Democrat from New York, he's especially poorly positioned to pick up working class/Southern Democrats who might be disaffected with Hillary Clinton, though he could pick up some moderate Republicans who don't like a Thompson-style GOP nominee.

There is speculation that Ron Paul could run under the independent ticket, something that many conservative media outlets are probably hoping will happen.  Paul, more than anyone else, will siphon votes away from Hillary Clinton.  He also has much of the younger vote.  It's not as likely that McCain supporters will flock to Paul's campaign being that the two candidates both embrace extreme opposite views on the Iraqi war.  In such a scenario, McCain might have the best value for becoming the next US President.

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Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com

Originally published January 11, 2008 4:00 pm EST