Ron Paul Odds to Come in Third in Iowa, New Hampshire

Online oddsmakers have Ron Paul in a comfortable third place finish among bettors in both the Republican Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary. 

While third place may not be as good as an outright win, it's good enough to boost momentum for Ron Paul heading into future primaries where his treasure chest for advertising totals upwards of $20 mil.   Many of the 2008 US Republican Presidential candidate's supporters believe that once voters realize Paul is a formidable candidate, finishing among the top 3, more Americans are likely to vote for him.

Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney were in a virtual deadlock as the two favorites to win the 2008 Iowa Caucus on the Republican side.  Huckabee had odds of -165 while Romney had odds of -130.  Ron Paul came in third, two points ahead of Senator John McCain, with the potential payout of $5.00 for every $1.00 bet if he were to win in Iowa. 

Yesterday, Gambling911.com reported on how Ron Paul was also listed with the third best odds to take New Hampshire behind both John McCain and Mitt Romney. 

If this holds true, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney would be the only two Republican candidates consistently placing among the top 3. 

Mainstream media referenced polls tend to place the long time Texas Congressman 4th and 5th, depending on the Primary. 

Fox News has excluded Ron Paul from an upcoming Republican debate in New Hampshire, much to the dismay of his loyal support base.  An AOL poll showed 96% of all respondents believed that Fox News was wrong in its decision to exclude Dr. Paul. 

Political prediction markets provide us -- the consumers of this information -- with a way to cut through this clutter.

A prediction market is a bit like the stock market, except that you are buying shares whose value depends on the success of a political candidate, rather than the profits earned by a corporation. And just as stock prices are a useful barometer of the health of a company, so too the price of a prediction contract is a barometer of the health of a political campaign.

Bookmaker.com is a most interesting firm when it comes to prediction indicators.  They have a reputation for being the sharpest bookmakers offshore today with the most "wise guy" or professional sports betting action going through their organization on a daily basis. The company was offering a line of $6 million on the amount of money OVER/UNDER Ron Paul would raise in a single day last month (he raised just over $6 million).  Brisk action on this bet and the OVER had been reported by Bookmaker. 

*Please note that this type of betting is likely to attract a large number of citizens from Washington State.  That state has made online gambling a CLASS C FELONY It is the only state in the US that holds the gambler criminally liable with a sentence equivalent to that of a sex offender.  As such Gambling911.com advises Washington State residents NOT TO GAMBLE ONLINE.

IOWA CAUCUS 2008 -REPUBLICAN WINNER - See Bookmaker.com Here

16011 MIKE HUCKABEE -165 - -

16012 MITT ROMNEY -130 - -

16013 RON PAUL +500 - -

16014 JOHN MCCAIN +700 - -

16015 RUDOLPH GIULIANI +3500 - -

16016 THE FIELD +2900

ALL THE LATEST IOWA CAUCUSES NEWS HERE

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Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com CCostigan@CostiganMedia.com

Originally published January 2, 2008 11:50 pm EST