NFL Football Betting: Update on Carolina Panthers Quarterback Situation

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
Sep/24/2019

One important NFL football betting concept that we stress repeatedly is not overreacting to injuries suffered by key players.  The ‘public’ has a bad tendency to freak out whenever an injury occurs to a marquee player and particularly when the injured player is a quarterback.  That has been seen repeatedly this year from Andrew Luck to Sam Darnold and now Cam Newton.  With very few exceptions, you’ll find line value just by betting on a team with an injured quarterback after the ‘public’ moves the line.

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Another important component of dealing with injuries not just in NFL football but every sport:  not all injuries are created equally.  For that reason, it’s important to educate yourself on the nature of the injury a player is dealing with.  The NFL makes that fairly easy and the media coverage surrounding the game even more so.  You can usually get a fairly accurate idea of what players are dealing with.  Some sports are maddeningly oblique—hockey, in particular, is notorious for an inscrutable injury report that usually refers to injuries are simply ‘upper body injury’ or ‘lower body injury’.

Finally, it’s crucial to do an objective qualitative assessment of a backup’s skill set.  There’s a misguided notion that every NFL backup is a significant dropoff in terms of quality from the starter.  This is usually false intrinsically but many bettors compare the backup to the missing starter with a bit of selective myopia.  The backup isn’t replacing a quarterback in top form, but an injured player that was likely competing at less than 100%.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH CAM NEWTON?

Last year, Cam Newton’s shoulder issues caused him to be ineffective.  This season his foot might sideline him and possibly require surgery.  Newton has a Lisfranc injury which he reportedly suffered in the preseason and re-aggravated in the Thursday Night loss to Tampa Bay on September 12.  It was initially reported as a ‘foot sprain’ but a Lisfranc injury is considerably more serious and could require surgery.  It’s even more problematic for a quarterback who uses his mobility and running ability as a significant component of his game.

Named after 19th Century French surgeon Jacques Lisfranc de St. Martin, the Lisfranc joint in the foot is where the long bones that go from the foot to the toes (the metatarsal bones) and the bones  in the arch of the foot (the tarsal bones) connect. The Lisfranc ligament is a thick band of tissue that joins two of these bones. When the joint is injured, it is not only painful but negatively impacts the stability of the foot.  It’s a very difficult injury to recover from without surgery and in extreme cases if left untreated can result in nerve damage.  It can be treated non-surgically but my guess is that they’ve already tried that to some degree with Newton’s preseason injury.  Even non-surgical treatment is effective, it takes a long time to heal.  Surgery usually involves realigning the bones and holding them in place with plates or screws.  Recovery time can be a matter of months.  Even ‘best case scenario’ is six to eight weeks with the significant caveat that ‘many athletes never return to their pre-injury level of competition’.

It is an injury that is difficult to deal with through non-surgical methods and one where there are significant risks to leaving it untreated.  These risks are compounded for a professional athlete who competes at the highest level of a sport with their ‘future earning potential’ tied to their health and competitive ability.  Surgery is likely inevitable for Newton and while it wouldn’t automatically be season ending that is likely the route the Panthers would choose. 

There have been conflicting reports about the nature and severity of Newton’s injury.  The official Panthers’ injury report still lists it as a ‘mid-foot sprain’ though concede there is no timetable for his return.  The team as of Tuesday afternoon indicated ‘no plans for surgery’ though that can change at any time.  If it is indeed a sprain, Newton could be ready to play in two or three weeks.

WHO IS KYLE ALLEN?

With Newton sidelined, backup Cam Newton started last Sunday’s game against the Cardinals at Arizona.  Allen has nowhere near the athleticism of a healthy Newton (few players do) but the operative term there is ‘healthy’.  The offense looked better against Arizona than it had at any point with Newton under center and came close to scoring as many points in one game (38) than the team had scored in their previous two (41).  Allen played two years of college ball at Texas A&M before transferring to the University of Houston.  He played only 4 games at Houston before being benched in favor of Kyle Postma.  He declared for the NFL draft after that season but eventually signed with Carolina as an undrafted free agent in early September 2018.  He was at various points waived, sent to the practice squad, re-signed and moved the main roster.  He made his first NFL start in the final game of the 2018 season and performed well-- 16-of-27 for 228 passing yards, with two TD passes and one rushing touchdown.

Allen has excellent accuracy and displayed it against Arizona—19 for 26 passing for 261 yards and 4 touchdown passes.  He got plenty of help from running back Christian McCaffrey (153 yards, 1 TD) and like any other NFL quarterback having a viable running threat makes his job easier.  He was sacked twice though looked poised outside of the pocket and made several tough throws into multiple coverage.  Most importantly, he looked like he ‘belonged’ and never appeared overwhelmed or flustered—no small feat for a 23 year old quarterback making his second NFL start.  He did a good job spreading the ball around with five receivers having 35+ yards.  He did fumble the ball twice, including one lost fumble.

In the short term, the Panthers will be undervalued with Allen at quarterback.  That sounds ridiculous considering that he just had a winning 4 TD performance and completely outplayed Kyler Murray, aka the #1 pick in the NFL draft but that is the reality.  The ‘public’ is just now coming to terms with the reality that Indianapolis’ Jacoby Brissett is a pretty good quarterback despite the fact that the Colts are a few missed Adam Vinatieri kicks away from being undefeated.  Panthers play four of their next five games on the road though given the poise Allen showed at Arizona that’s not a huge concern

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