Online Poker Community Can Swing the Pendulum in Iowa for Ron Paul

The online poker community and Internet gambling in general helped dramatically change the face of the Iowa elections last year when Rep. Jim Leach of Iowa, a chief backer of a new law that effectively outlawed gambling on the Internet, was removed from office.  The results were a complete shock to the political establishment since polls had Leach well ahead of his opponent heading into the election.

Ironically, Iowa takes center stage once again next Thursday as the first US primary will provide us with a glance of how each political candidate performs.  Among these is Republican Ron Paul.  But unlike Leach, the online poker community wants Paul (a proponent of online gambling) to win in Iowa next week.  And he can if enough of Iowa's powerful poker representation comes out to vote as they did last year.

Leach, a Republican from Iowa City, lost his bid for a 16th term in a stunning upset to Democrat David Loebsack of Mount Vernon, as Democrats swept offices across the country and took control of the U.S. House and Senate.

Leach's defeat by 2 percentage points came less than a month after President Bush signed a law making it illegal for financial institutions and credit card companies to process payments on Internet wagers. Aides to Leach dismissed the suggestion that online gaming advocates had anything to do with his defeat.

John Pappas, a spokesman for the Poker Players Alliance told the Des Moines Register that his non-profit organization blasted out e-mails to 150,000 poker fans across the country with instructions on how to register to vote, as well as a scorecard on how members of Congress voted on the gambling bill.  That initiative apparently worked.

And while the Poker Players Alliance has done little if anything to back the Ron Paul campaign, websites like Gambling911.com and independent poker players on sites such as TwoPlusTwo.com have been offering extensive coverage and reasons why those who love the game of poker should support Ron Paul, especially those who reside in Iowa. 

It is estimated that there are well over 100,000 poker loving citizens of Iowa, many who fear their they could have been residing in a police state similar to Washington had Leach been elected.  Washington State currently makes playing poker online a Class C felony with severe jail time.

Following last year's Iowa election, the Poker Players Alliance commissioned an automated poll of 1,033 voters in the 2nd District, asking how the poker issue influenced their decisions.

Among those who knew about the law, 15 percent said it influenced them to support Loebsack.  Another 10 percent said that it influenced them to support Leach.

Online poker advocates contend that was enough to doom Leach in a race lost by just 5,711 votes.

These numbers could prove even more telling for the Ron Paul campaign where some polls have the Republican within striking distance of third place.  At press time, he was pulling 10% (a statistical tie with John McCain and Giuliani) in Iowa.  Many believe that the margin of error will swing heavily in Paul's favor since many of his supporters have never voted in prior elections and, as such, have not been subjected to scientific polling. 

BetUS.com had Mike Huckabee a -200 favorite to take Iowa while Mitt Romney was listed with +150 odds.  Ron Paul was not listed as an option at BetUS.com for reasons unknown considering they have him at +700 odds to win the Republican nomination, ahead of Fred Thompson at +1000 odds.  Thompson is listed among the choices to bet on for the Iowa caucuses. 

And both hard-nosed Republicans and Democrats are starting to take notice of Ron Paul, despite the mainstream media painting him as a "fringe candidate" who cannot possibly win the GOP.

Gambling911.com has spoken to active conservative Republicans who only six months ago had never heard the name "Ron Paul".  Their reaction overwhelmingly has not been to shun Ron Paul.  Instead, they have been perplexed as to how he has raised so much money and have questioned why the media seemingly ignores such a candidate.  Democrats, likewise,  expressed an interest in Ron Paul's platform. 

Meanwhile, the Ron Paul juggernaut continues within the online poker community.  Two Plus Two Forum members are quick to question whether he is the right candidate for them on all issues, not just poker, which has led to some exciting debate that allows for both pro and con-Ron Paul discussion. 

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Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher CCostigan@CostiganMedia.com

Originally published December 28, 2007 2:42 pm EST