Odds on UCLA Bruins at USC Trojans

As of Monday November 28, 2005, the odds on Saturday's big meeting between the UCLA Bruins at USC Trojans had dropped quite a bit from its opening line of -25.

Such a drop indicates that the online sportsbooks very much want action on the home favorite, the USC Trojans.   In fact, nearly 75 per cent of all bets on the game at PlayersOnly.com have been placed on the Bruins to cover the 21.5 point spread offered by this book.

A review of the Sonny Moore Team Ratings Model, which has been quite accurate in evaluating NFL teams for Gambling911.com's free Weekly NFL picks, suggests that the USC Trojans can win this game against UCLA by 23 1/2 to 24 points.  That's better than the current line as of Monday night which ranges between -21 at BetGameDay and -21 1/2 at a handful of other online sportsbooks but is less than the opening line of -25.

There is a strong indication that UCLA can cover here based on the opening line although there is a potential for a middling opportunity for those lucky enough to take advantage of UCLA at +25, assuming the ratings model is accurate as it applies to this game. 

Only twice in Bowl Championship Series history has a team been in position to reach the title game heading into the final weekend of the regular season and played its way out.

Southern California and the Texas Longhorns will try to avoid tripping up at the finish line Saturday, the way UCLA did in 1998 and Tennessee did in 2001.

As they have been all season, the Trojans and Longhorns were atop the BCS standings Monday. USC is first for the fifth time in six weeks. Texas, which was on top for one week, is second again.

The final BCS standings are released Sunday and the top two teams will play in the Rose Bowl for a national title. USC and Texas are the only unbeaten teams left in Division I-A, but each faces one more test.

USC (11-0) plays rival UCLA (9-1) at the Coliseum on Saturday. Texas Longhorns (11-0) will meet Colorado (7-4) in the Big 12 title game at Reliant Stadium in Houston. Both the Longhorns and Trojans are favored by at least three touchdowns, so only a major upset will prevent them for meeting in Pasadena, Calif., on Jan. 4.
 

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