NFL Playoff Betting – Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

The Buffalo Bills look to continue their magical season with a trip to the Super Bowl. They’ll have to get past the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship to that, though. The two best teams in the conference tangle for the second time this season bringing a combined five losses into the contest. KC’s hopes of repeating as Super Bowl champions hinge on the health of Patrick Mahomes, who sustained a concussion last week and was still in the NFL’s protocol as of this writing. Even with his status unclear, the Chiefs are positioned as a field goal favorite to reach the Super Bowl for a second straight season.  Bookmaker.eu offers a generous welcome bonus (max bonus $1600)

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Date and Time: Sunday, January 24, 2021, 6:40 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
NFL Odds: Chiefs -3, O/U 54
Bills at Chiefs TV Coverage: CBS

Odds Analysis

Not only have the Bills been a success on the field they’ve been profitable at the betting window as well. They covered the 2.5-point line in their 17-3 win over Baltimore last week, their eighth straight win while going 9-1 ATS in their last 10. The Bills played as an underdog five times this season going 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. One of those games was in Week 6 against Kansas City when they were a 5.5-point dog. The Bills failed to cover in the 26-17 setback but used that game as a springboard for a run that’s seen them win 11 of 12 since. The Chiefs have enjoyed as much success on the field going 11-1 since a lost to Las Vegas in Week 5. The lone setback was the season-ender to the Chargers when a number of starters sat out. However, KC’s last eight wins have each been by six points or less and the Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in that span. They held off Cleveland, 22-17, in the divisional round last week failing to cover the 7.5-point closing line. Kansas City is currently a field goal favorite on the NFL betting line, though that number could change once the status of Mahomes becomes official.

Buffalo Bills

Most of Buffalo’s success this season has come on the arm of Josh Allen, who threw for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns while directing an offense that finished second in scoring with 31.3 points per game. The acquisition of Stefon Diggs did exactly what was intended. The Bills brought in the receiver to aid a passing game that wasn’t good in previous seasons. The continued development of Allen also helped and the two had immediate chemistry. Diggs led the NFL with 127 receptions and 1,535 yards while adding eight touchdowns.

The Bills advanced to the AFC Championship for the first time since the 1993 season, but it was the defense that finally joined the party in their 17-3 win over Baltimore. Many of the so-called experts had the Ravens as an upset pick due to the play of Lamar Jackson and Buffalo’s middling defense. But the group came up big containing the reigning MVP while limiting the NFL’s best ground game to 150 yards.

Another strong defensive outing is needed to get past the Chiefs. It’s best to prepare as if Mahomes will play, since he probably will. And the Bills will face an offense that’s the exact opposite of what they just saw. Baltimore averaged over 190 yards on the ground while KC has the best passing attack at over 303 yards per game; Buffalo ranked 13th against the pass during the regular season.

Kansas City Chiefs

Proving their offense isn’t all based on Mahomes, the Chiefs beat the Bills in Week 6 with a destructive ground game that produced 245 yards on 46 attempts. If Mahomes isn’t cleared to play the Chiefs will need to have success running the football. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a monster game that day going for 161 yards on 26 carries and the rookie returned to practice this week after missing a few games with an ankle injury. Edwards-Helaire, Le’Veon Bell and Darrel Williams make up a potent backfield.

The question remains whether or not Mahomes plays. Obviously the whole dynamic of the offense changes without him. Chad Henne would get the start in place of Mahomes, and the career backup made his first postseason appearance last week completing 6 of 8 for 66 yards with a couple of key running plays that secured the victory. However, he tossed a head-scratching pick and the pressure goes up in a meaningful game.

It might take another strong defensive game to get a victory. Back in Week 6 the Chiefs did something few teams did this season. They held Allen to 122 passing yards with an interception and allowed just 206 total yards. Buffalo was held to its second-lowest point total of the season.

Bet Bills at Chiefs at BookMaker.eu

Similar teams in makeup and record means we’re probably in for a close encounter. The Chiefs brought back nearly all their starters from last season with hopes of repeating while the Bills almost seem like a team of destiny. It’s hard to distinguish between the two so I’ll take the points and hope for the best.

NFL Score Prediction: Kansas City 27, Buffalo 26

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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