NFL Futures and Props: Best Regular Season Record in 2019
One of the more interesting NFL props at BetOnline.ag is the ‘Best Regular Season Record’ market. The prop is exactly what it says on the marquee—you pick the NFL team with the best regular season record. There is also a corresponding prop bet for the ‘Worst Regular Season Record’ and we’ll look at that next.
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BET LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +1000 TO HAVE BEST 2019 REGULAR SEASON RECORD
Last season, the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams tied for the best record in the NFL with 13 wins. Three teams had 12 wins—the Kansas City Chiefs, Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Chargers. My strategy for this prop bet is to find teams that performed well in 2018 and that appear to have improved—or at the very least didn’t decline—in the offseason. The Chargers didn’t do much in the offseason which isn’t necessarily a bad thing for a 12 win team. The defense was top ten in both total defense and scoring defense a year ago. Philip Rivers is 37 but playing arguably the best football of his career. The Chargers brought in Tyrod Taylor to serve as Rivers’ backup—Taylor certainly isn’t at the same level qualitatively as Rivers but he’s a well regarded teammate that gets high marks for character, toughness and locker room presence. Taylor is being very smart about this opportunity and is hoping to learn under Rivers tutelage. Taylor might not be a quarterback to get you to the Super Bowl but he is certainly capable of winning a game or two should the situation call for it. Then again, since Philip Rivers has never missed a NFL game and will take sole possession of #3 on the list of all time consecutive starts by a NFL quarterback. LA will play a marginally tougher schedule this year based on opponent win percentage (.502 this year against .480 last year) but that doesn’t concern us much. This is an excellent team with great team leaders, coaching and chemistry.
BET CHICAGO BEARS +1400 TO HAVE BEST 2019 REGULAR SEASON RECORD
Similar premise to the above play. The Chicago Bears won 12 games last year yet there are seven teams ahead of them on the ‘Best Record’ odds board. They did lose defensive coordinator Vic Fangio who is now the Denver Broncos’ head coach. Little if any dropoff, however, since the Bears have brought in former Indianapolis Colts’ head coach Chuck Pagano as his replacement. On the field, they return most of the same personnel but in several instances they’ve either upgraded or at the very least found a player that is a better fit for Matt Nagy’s schemes. For example, Chicago traded running back Jordan Howard to Philadelphia and drafted David Montgomery out of Iowa State to replace him. The thinking is that Montgomery is a better fit for Nagy's offense. Bears will have ridiculous depth at the running back position with former South Carolina Gamecock Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen also on the depth chart. They sent much maligned place kicker Cody Parkey packing and after making the position a priority during training camp are happy with Eddy Pineiro who is in his second season out of the University of Florida. Pineiro’s solid 2-2 night with a 58 yarder and 3 PATS in the team’s third preseason game against Indianapolis was overshadowed by Andrew Luck’s retirement announcement. Bears have no problems with the punting game where Pat O'Donnell already ranks among the best at the position in franchise history. Chicago is tied for the 5th toughest schedule in the NFL based on opponent winning percentage but since that number (.520) is identical to last year no big deal.
BET MINNESOTA VIKINGS +2000 TO HAVE BEST 2019 REGULAR SEASON RECORD
The Vikings’ 2019 performance is contingent on improving their offense which slipped to #20 total offense and #19 scoring offense last year. The rushing game was horrific and ranked #30 in the NFL putting up just 93.3 yards per game. It could be an issue again this year as Dalvin Cook is at the top of an uninspiring depth chart. They definitely need more out of Kirk Cousins and particularly if the running game doesn’t show marked improvement. Minnesota brought in Gary Kubiak to assist offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski. One of the Vikings most significant offensive issues last year was line play and pass protection—Cousins was sacked 40 times—but the offensive line should be healthier this year and could be better on top of that if draftee Garrett Bradbury out of NC State pans out. Minnesota defense is downright and finished ranked #4 total defense and #9 scoring defense. Vikings are clearly a better team than they showed last year and they’re just two seasons removed from a 13-3 record.
