NFL Betting – Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
The last two standing in the NFC North will go head-to-head with first place in the division at stake. The Green Bay Packers have already secured a playoff berth and can wrap up their first division title since losing in the conference championship three seasons ago. The Minnesota Vikings will also be playing in January, but they have a tougher road to a division crown. The Vikings need to win out and hope the Pack falters in the finale. Green Bay prevailed in Week 2 in the first meeting, which is the difference right now in the standings.
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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Date and Time: Monday, December 23, 2019, 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Opening NFL Odds: Minnesota -4.5, O/U 46
Packers at Vikings TV Coverage: ESPN
Odds Analysis
The Vikings have yet to lose at home this season going 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS, and they opened as a 4.5-point favorite to extend the streak. This game takes on added importance for the hosts, who need two wins and a pair of Green Bay losses to win the division. Both teams are locked into the postseason, however. The line was wagered to Minnesota -4, but still good news for the Vikings who are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games when a favorite of between 4- and 4.5-points. The Packers won the first matchup, 21-16, covering the 3.5-point closing line with the teams playing below the total of 43. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 confrontations.
Green Bay Packers
A loss doesn’t necessarily hurt the Packers, which is a good thing since they haven’t won at the Vikings new venue going 0-3 SU and ATS at US Bank Stadium. They have built their lead in the division by going unbeaten against NFC North foes, the latest win came last week, 21-13, over the Bears where the Packers covered the 4-point spread improving to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. It was also Green Bay’s third straight win following a humiliating, 37-8, loss at San Francisco.
This isn’t your typical Aaron Rodgers offense, but the Packers are finding ways to get the job done. They managed only 292 yards last week against the Bears and converted 33 percent on third down, but they were efficient. Rodgers was 16 of 33 for 203 yards and a touchdown, and more importantly he didn’t turn the ball over. He’s thrown just two interceptions all season going eight straight games without being picked.
Green Bay has turned the ball over nine times, the second-fewest in the NFL, and their plus-14 differential is also second-best. On defense they concede a lot of yards – 371.3 per game to be exact – to rank 23rd, but they allow only 20.2 points to place ninth. And they’ve been good in the red zone on both sides of the football scoring a touchdown on 69 percent of their trips while allowing opponents to score on 48.9 percent of their chances.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have to acknowledge the elephant in the room and that’s the play of Kirk Cousins in primetime. Over his career Cousins is 7-14 in games that start after 8 p.m. ET, and on Monday Night Football he’s 0-8 SU and ATS. And to make matters worse leading rusher Dalvin Cook will not play due to a shoulder injury and backup Alexander Mattison is questionable. That leaves Mike Boone as the potential No. 1 option in the run game. Boone had 56 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries in last week’s win.
Cousins is having the best season of his career putting those primetime failures in jeopardy. He threw for 207 yards last week, his fewest since Week 3, but he completed 76 percent of his throws with a touchdown. He didn’t take a sack against the Bolts and he’s been taken down just once in the last three games. For the season Cousins has completed 70.5 percent of his throws for nearly 3,500 yards with 25 touchdowns and five interceptions.
With one key figure and possibly two in the NFL’s fourth-best ground game sidelined, the burden of beating Green Bay falls on Cousins. I don’t think he’s going to get bailed out by the defense this week like he did in LA when the group forced seven Chargers turnovers that were converted into 17 points in the 39-10 win. Over the last two game the defense has surrendered 17 points with nine takeaways and eight sacks.
Bet Packers at Vikings at BookMaker.eu
It’s time for Cousins to make a statement and I believe he does just that against a Packers club that has never won inside Minnesota’s new stadium. Cousins has performed well against Green Bay in the past with 1,372 yards, 11 touchdowns and 112.8 passer rating in four starts, and the defense will do enough to limit Rodgers and his big play ability to get the home cover.
NFL Score Prediction: Minnesota 26, Green Bay 20
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